In its "Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026" report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the increase in mineral export controls worldwide threatens economic security.
The report stated that the recent proliferation of export controls has turned theoretical concerns about excessive supply concentration into a direct economic security problem.
China's rare earth restrictions
The IEA noted that China's export controls on rare earth elements in April 2025 forced some automotive companies to reduce production or temporarily suspend operations. It stated that Beijing's restrictions in this area jeopardize $6.5 trillion in annual industrial production outside China.
The report emphasized that the scope of these controls was expanded in October 2025, and that despite a one-year delay in implementation, $6.5 trillion in production would remain at risk if they fully take effect.
Market volatility and supply concentration
According to the report, base metal prices, which had been declining in recent years, recovered in early 2025 and 2026 as supply tightened. This trend was further exacerbated by new export restrictions imposed by major suppliers.
The report noted that mineral prices fell by 9 percent in 2025 due to price fluctuations and geopolitical tensions, ending consecutive years of growth. It highlighted the increasing geographical concentration in mineral supply chains, particularly in refining.
The report stated that over the past two years, the largest refineries accounted for more than three-quarters of total refined supply growth, including nickel refineries in Indonesia and other base metal refineries in China's energy sector. It noted that in many markets such as manganese, nickel, and graphite, almost all supply growth came from the dominant supplier.
EU steps to reduce dependence on China
The European Union announced various measures to reduce dependence on China's restrictions on rare metals and critical raw materials. Meanwhile, China's Ministry of Commerce imposed new restrictions on October 9 on the export of rare earth elements and the transfer of equipment or technology related to their production or processing, citing "national security." Under the new regulation, exporters are required to obtain an "export license" from the ministry.
Rare earth elements encompass 17 chemical elements, including neodymium, dysprosium, and lanthanum, and are used in the production of radars, missiles, fighter jets, electric vehicles, and super-strong magnets.
