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- October 13, 202618°
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- October 13, 202618°
OECD Raises South Korea Growth Forecast
OECD raised South Korea's 2026 growth forecast to 2.6%. While the record increase in chip exports supports the economy, the global growth outlook is down...
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development raised South Korea's 2026 growth forecast from 1.7% to 2.6%. Behind the revision was the strengthened chip exports fueled by accelerated investments in artificial intelligence.
Highlights
- OECD updated South Korea's 2026 growth forecast to 2.6%.
- The organization said chip exports will continue to drive economic growth.
- In May, South Korea's total exports rose 53% year-on-year to $87.8 billion.
- In the same month, chip exports increased by 169.4% to reach $37.2 billion.
- Sharp rises were also seen in DRAM and NAND flash shipments.
- OECD revised the global growth forecast downward.
According to the institution, South Korea's overseas chip shipments will continue to be the main growth driver. The monthly record level of $87.8 billion in total exports in May, up 53% year-on-year, supported this outlook.
Chip exports reached $37.2 billion in the same period, up 169.4% year-on-year. This figure marked the highest monthly level to date and exceeded the $30 billion threshold for the third consecutive month.
Record increase in chips
DRAM shipments rose 369.8% to $18.6 billion. NAND flash shipments increased 206.8% to $1.7 billion. OECD noted that this momentum kept both exports and domestic investment vibrant.
OECD's 2026 forecast aligns with the outlook of the Bank of Korea and exceeds the 2.5% expectation of the Korea Development Institute. The organization lowered the 2027 growth forecast to 1.9%.
Inflation outlook also updated
The institution expects consumer prices in South Korea to rise by 2.6% in 2026, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous report.
The 2027 inflation forecast was announced as 2.2%, representing a 0.2 percentage point increase compared to the March projection.
OECD stated that steps to cap oil prices and reduce fuel prices have eased inflationary pressures. However, it recommended a gradual phase-out of such programs, warning that these measures could increase the persistence of inflationary pressures.
More cautious outlook for the global economy
In the same assessment, the organization lowered the global economic growth forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 2.8%, citing high energy prices and supply disruptions around the critical Strait of Hormuz as reasons.
Context: OECD's revision once again highlighted how decisive technology exports have become for South Korea's economy. The strong trend in chip demand has lifted the country's growth outlook, while global risks stand out as the main factor that could limit this gain.
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