Prime Minister Nikol Paşinyan's Civil Contract Party won the parliamentary elections held in Armenia on Sunday by a clear margin. The party secured 49.8% of the votes and obtained 61 seats in parliament.
The Civil Contract gathered a total of 727,160 votes, surpassing the Strong Armenia alliance, which is associated with Russian-linked Armenian oligarch Samvel Karapetyan and received 23.3% of the votes.
The Armenia alliance, known for its close ties to Russia and led by former President Robert Kocharyan, came in third with 9.9% of the vote.
Paşinyan described the result as a "historic victory" that secures the country's future. The election outcome signaled a significant shift in Armenian public opinion towards Russia.
Western governments and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky quickly congratulated Paşinyan. Moscow, however, took a different stance, with Russian officials alleging election irregularities without providing evidence.
The report noted that the Kremlin has not issued an official statement on the results. Nevertheless, the election's impact is seen as extending beyond domestic politics, representing Armenia's response to Russian pressure.
Armenia has long been one of Moscow's closest partners in the South Caucasus. The country hosts a Russian military base, is a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and its energy and economic structures have been largely dependent on Russia.
This situation was shaken after Armenia lost control over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023. Although Russian peacekeepers are present in the region, many Armenians felt Moscow did not take sufficient steps to change the outcome.
Russian opposition activist Daniil Chebikin, living in Yerevan, said this period fundamentally changed Armenian public perception of Russia. According to him, many Armenians concluded that Russia lacked the will or capacity to protect its closest regional ally.
Since then, Yerevan has distanced itself from Moscow's line. The Paşinyan administration froze its participation in the CSTO and raised the possibility of leaving the organization; meanwhile, relations with the European Union and the United States deepened, and contacts with Ukraine increased through humanitarian aid channels.
Armenia hosting the European Political Community summit in Yerevan this year was a visible example of this shift. The participation of French President Emmanuel Macron and Zelensky at the summit triggered strong reactions from Moscow.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's brief visit to Yerevan at the end of May was also among developments that heightened Kremlin's displeasure. Rubio signed a Comprehensive and Strategic Partnership Charter with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan.
Russian pressure during the election process was not limited to political statements. The report included information based on Western intelligence sources and internal documents indicating Moscow tried to prevent Paşinyan's re-election.
This pressure extended into the economic sphere. At the end of April and beginning of May, Russian authorities imposed restrictions on the import of Armenian blueberries and fresh vegetables, citing health and technical reasons.
Previously, restrictions had been applied to the import of mineral water, some cognac producers' products, and fresh flowers from Armenia. This showed Moscow gradually expanding its economic pressure channels on Yerevan.
At the end of May, Russia recalled its ambassador to Armenia for consultations. This move was seen as a clear sign of dissatisfaction in relations but did not mean a break in diplomatic ties.
The Kremlin officially linked this step to Armenia's increasing cooperation with the European Union. Russian officials argued that a closer European orientation could have economic consequences.
Putin stated that deeper integration with the EU could deprive Armenia of its privileged position in Russia-led economic structures. Russian officials also claimed that if the country abandoned the current arrangement, it could lose up to 14% of its gross domestic product.
There were also concerns that gas discounts might end, railway tariff privileges could be removed, and regulations on labor migration might change. These issues carry political weight, especially given the large number of Armenians working in Russia.
The election result showed that Armenia's foreign policy orientation is being reshaped not only at the ballot box but also in its economy and security architecture. Paşinyan's victory further strengthened interpretations that Moscow's influence in the region is declining.
