Renewed clashes between the US and Iran have nearly zeroed out ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical chokepoints for global energy markets. According to Lloyd's List Intelligence, no large vessel using the US-coordinated route has transited the area since Tuesday.
The maritime data company stated: "Lloyd's List Intelligence data shows that vessels over 10,000 dwt have not transited the so-called Southern Route with AIS signals since July 7; at least two vessels are estimated to have passed with their systems turned off."
Daily transits drop from 130 to 5
Maritime intelligence platform Windward reported that as of Thursday morning only 5 vessels could be tracked in the strait, whereas before the clashes began there was a daily average of 130 transits. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) also announced that the current traffic level reflects shipping companies' "cautious stance" and signals a "heightened threat environment."
"Iran risks all maritime transport in the region"
John Bradford, executive director of the Yokosuka Asia-Pacific Research Council, told Al Jazeera: "Iran's capacity to strike vessels in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman puts all maritime transport in the region at risk." He warned that as the crisis drags on, shipping could shift to other ports and routes.
Mutual attacks and contradictory statements
Iran reported multiple explosions in the south of the country on Thursday. But a US official told Al Jazeera that US forces were not behind these attacks; no country or group has yet claimed responsibility for the blasts. In contrast, Iranian officials and media claimed that Tehran's forces struck US military presences in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, and Iraq in response to operations Washington launched in retaliation for attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices calm for now, but increase expected
Despite the turmoil in the region, oil prices remained largely flat on Friday. Brent crude traded at $76.37 per barrel as of 02:30 GMT, up more than $4 compared to last week. Bart Melek, Global Head of Commodity Strategy at TD Securities, said the relative price stability reflected the market's confidence that the situation in the Middle East will calm down, but upward pressure would increase in the coming weeks as reserves dwindle. Melek said: "In line with this, we foresee Brent rising $10-15 towards the summer months."
June Goh, Senior Oil Analyst at Sparta Commodities, said the biggest price pressure was on refined products, especially diesel, rather than crude. Goh said: "Diesel is being affected both by supply losses from Middle Eastern refineries and by Russian refineries coming under constant drone attacks, and prices have risen far above seasonal norms."
Asian markets rise
Following a 0.8% rise on US exchanges, Asian stock markets opened positively on Friday. The Tokyo Nikkei 225 gained 1.9%, Seoul's Kospi climbed 3.6% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 1.4%.
