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US 60-day oil waiver for Iran takes effect, exports jump 70 percent
The 60-day temporary waiver the US granted on Iranian oil exports took effect on June 22. Iran's oil exports reached 640,000 barrels per day in June, a 70 percent increase, but experts say this will only provide temporary relief due to the economy's structural problems.
The US administration's 60-day temporary waiver on Iranian oil exports took effect on June 22. The waiver, which will last until August 21, 2026, provided a short-term breather for the Iranian economy.
According to Reuters estimates, Iran's oil exports rose by more than 70 percent in June to around 640,000 barrels per day. Oil and energy expert Amer al-Shubaki stressed that despite this increase, the Iranian economy faces structural problems.
"Economy is on life support"
Al-Shubaki compared the Iranian economy to "a patient in intensive care." He said the US concessions are merely temporary measures to provide minimal cash flow, and added: "These incentives were intended to give a little oxygen so the economy can breathe without sanctions and recover some of its normal functions."
Al-Shubaki said the assets Iran is expected to access under the current memorandum of understanding are worth about $12 billion. He noted that the Tehran administration aims to establish a strategic investment fund with these resources to support infrastructure.
Access to funds will not be immediate
The expert warned that it could take weeks for the proceeds from the sold oil to reach Iran. He cited legal, commercial and banking obstacles as the reason. He said some countries like Japan have shown interest in Iranian oil, but remain hesitant about financial transactions because Tehran is on the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) blacklist.
Al-Shubaki also noted that actual exports could surpass the announced figures if Iran releases oil from floating storage it had kept ready outside the US embargo.
Oil-for-food mechanism
US President Donald Trump had announced that the Iranian funds to be released would only be used to purchase food from American farmers. However, Central Bank of Iran Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati announced that the signed memoranda of understanding do not include an obligation to buy agricultural products from the US.
Trump, meanwhile, warned Tehran, saying "Iran must use its oil revenues to buy food for its people, not to rebuild its military," and threatened that "if Iran behaves badly, Washington will do what it must."
Al-Shubaki said the Trump administration drafted this agreement with much stricter conditions compared to the 2015 nuclear deal. He stated that Washington wants to prevent the revenues from being diverted to military purposes and force Iran to buy American agricultural products.
Production capacity is low
Iran's energy infrastructure has been severely damaged by previous sanctions. Facilities in the Mahshahr and Asaluyeh regions, which form the backbone of the petrochemical sector, suffered production losses of around $13 billion.
Al-Shubaki said some oil fields were previously shut down because storage tanks were completely full, and it will take months for these fields to resume operations. He noted that while Iran exported around 6 million barrels per day in 1979, it now struggles to even reach the 2 million barrel level, and at best its total production capacity is between 2 and 4 million barrels.
The expert added that the flow of Iranian oil into the market has lowered global prices, which serves US interests and benefits importing countries, but creates competition that works against other regional producers.
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