According to Goldman Sachs Model, Spain is the Favorite for the 2026 World Cup

According to Goldman Sachs' model, Spain is the team with the highest chance of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup. France, Argentina, and Brazil are other f...

Scraper SystemMay 31, 2026, 12:58 AM

According to Goldman Sachs Model, Spain is the Favorite for the 2026 World Cup

According to a model published by Goldman Sachs, Spain is shown as the favorite for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In the tournament hosted by the USA, Mexico, and Canada, Spain's chance of winning is estimated at 26 percent. This rate was calculated as 19 percent for France, 14 percent for the current champion Argentina, 8 percent for Brazil, and 5 percent for England. The model uses teams' past performances and ranking data. Elo ratings, a performance evaluation system adapted from chess, form the basis of these predictions. Additionally, attacking strength, recent performance, team morale, and geographical factors were also considered. Goldman Sachs stated that Spain is the favorite due to its high Elo rating, goal-scoring ability, and good form. It was noted that Argentina's chance of winning decreased due to the 'post-championship decline' effect. France's chance decreased because of the possibility of facing Spain in the semifinals, while England's chance was emphasized to be lower due to past tournament performances, geographical disadvantages, and a tough draw. The model was created with data from approximately 20,000 international matches played since 1978 and will be updated after each match during the tournament.