European Union energy ministers are considering the coordinated deployment of jet fuel reserves as disruptions in the Middle East continue and the summer travel season begins. A briefing prepared ahead of the June 26 ministers' meeting reveals that jet fuel has become the most exposed item in the energy market at present.
According to the briefing, there has not yet been a significant physical shortage in crude oil and natural gas markets. However, the months-long disruption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has directly pressured aviation fuel supplies, with risks expected to grow as demand rises during the summer months.
Short-term risks for jet fuel are increasing
At the EU level, the option of a joint release from strategic reserves, particularly jet fuel stocks, is being considered if commercial supply proves insufficient before the end of the year. The briefing emphasizes that this possibility represents a "real and near-term" risk during a period when summer demand is approaching its seasonal peak.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly reduced tanker traffic through one of the world's most critical energy transit points. This has disrupted a substantial portion of Middle Eastern oil exports and caused volatility in global markets.
The International Energy Agency coordinated a release of 400 million barrels of oil on March 11 to help balance the emerging shortfall. In its emergency contributions to Europe, the agency prioritized refined products, especially jet fuel, due to regional shortages.
Price pressures most felt in refined products
Although oil prices have retreated from the peaks seen early in the conflict, pressure on refined products continues. The briefing notes that jet fuel prices have risen much more sharply than crude oil during this period, nearly doubling in some regional markets at the height of the crisis.
George Shaw, an energy analyst at market intelligence firm Kpler, said there is a clear trend toward increasing jet fuel production at European refineries. The majority of the EU's refining capacity and output is concentrated in Germany, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands.
Shaw also noted expectations for increased imports from the U.S., with Nigeria remaining an important supplier for Europe. Smaller quantities of fuel are coming from the Middle East.
He added that as summer progresses, especially in August and September when consumption rises, supply will face greater strain. This assessment indicates that despite short-term relief, the market remains vulnerable to seasonal pressures.
Aviation sector seeks temporary regulatory changes
ACI Europe, the European airports association, warned in a letter to the European Commission on April 10 that if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened within three weeks, a "systemic" jet fuel shortage could become a reality for the EU. These concerns were later echoed by International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol.
Meanwhile, some airlines have taken a more cautious stance. Air Canada and Lufthansa stated they do not expect mass flight cancellations during the summer and are not worried about jet fuel shortages.
The International Air Transport Association also reported no immediate fuel supply crisis but highlighted structural vulnerabilities in overall market dynamics. The association called for a temporary suspension of the EU's "anti-tankering" rules, which limit airlines from carrying extra fuel due to cost concerns.
A representative emphasized the need for suppliers and airlines to concentrate fuel stocks where they are most needed. This measure could also reduce the administrative burden caused by thousands of individual exemption requests.
Brussels prepares for coordinated intervention
EU energy ministers acknowledge that widespread shortages have not yet occurred but recognize that risks increase as demand grows. High pre-crisis stock levels, rising imports from the U.S. and Nigeria, and weak demand in some sectors have so far prevented significant disruptions for consumers.
Discussions in Brussels have now broadened under the umbrella of energy security. According to the briefing, the European Commission is preparing official proposals for demand management and coordinated releases from strategic reserves to ensure fair distribution among member states.
The Commission has also warned governments against unilateral interventions to avoid fragmenting the single market. This caution points to the risk of imbalances if each country activates its own reserves independently.
Energy analysts believe that even in the most optimistic scenario, recovery will not be swift. It is estimated that refinery operations in the Gulf could take months to return to normal, and shipments to the EU may still take 30 to 40 days after resuming.
Therefore, tension in the fuel market is expected to persist throughout the summer regardless of when shipments resume. The key question for the EU is whether a joint stock management mechanism will be implemented before supply bottlenecks deepen.
