The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) has found that the halt of Russian gas flows through Ukraine caused a lasting divergence in European natural gas prices.
According to the report, prices that had moved in tandem for years have now diverged, falling in the west near LNG terminals and rising further east.
Lowest prices in Western Europe, rises in the East
Gas prices hit their lowest levels at France’s TRF, Belgium’s ZTP, the Dutch TTF and the British NBP trading hubs. Germany’s THE hub remained slightly above this group, while prices at hubs in Czechia, Austria and Slovakia were significantly higher.
The study attributed this pattern mainly to LNG entering the system predominantly via Northwest European ports, and the cost of shipping gas eastwards. This trend continued into the first half of 2026.
European gas market continued to grow
Despite the loss of Russian gas, the European gas market kept growing in terms of traded volume. According to the report, in 2025 the total volume of natural gas traded rose 16 percent year-on-year, while physical demand climbed 8 percent. Total traded volume exceeded 100,000 terawatt-hours for the first time.
The OIES assessment noted that "Europe’s traded natural gas markets have proven their resilience in the face of challenging conditions."
TTF consolidates its lead
The Netherlands-based TTF remained by far Europe's largest gas trading hub. With its traded volume up 14 percent last year, TTF reached 4.5 times the combined volume of the other eight major European hubs, 9 times that of the UK's NBP, 20 times Germany's THE, and more than 52 times Italy's PSV.
Eighty-one percent of all European natural gas trades were executed on TTF. As LNG trade increased, market participants from North America and Asia turned to TTF, also boosting trades based on the TTF-Henry Hub spread.
Belgium's ZTP surges, Central Europe declines
Traded volumes at Belgium's ZTP hub surged over 165 percent in 2025. According to the report, this jump was driven by a rise in Belgium's LNG imports, the eastward flow of gas from the UK and France, and the country’s emergence as a major entry point.
In contrast, volumes fell at some Central European hubs that were more dependent on Russian gas. Slovakia's SVOB dropped 77 percent and Czechia's VOB fell around 18 percent. The decline was attributed mainly to the shift in trade routes following the halt of Russian gas flows.
