Extreme Heat Risk Highlights 2026 World Cup Matches

According to scientists' analysis, some matches in the 2026 World Cup may be played under extreme heat conditions. High-risk warnings were issued especially for Miami, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Dallas, and Houston.

It has been reported that a significant portion of the matches to be played in the cities hosting the 2026 World Cup could experience extreme heat conditions. The research revealed that heat stress levels that could challenge players' health might accompany the tournament schedule in some cities.

The study used a statistical model to calculate the likelihood of matches being played under very hot conditions. Scientists based their analysis on the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) indicator, which is considered a more accurate measure of the heat load felt by the human body.

Which cities appear more at risk?

The analysis evaluated each of the 2026 tournament cities in the USA, Mexico, and Canada separately. Local factors such as altitude, humidity, regional climate, and the urban structure surrounding the stadiums were also taken into account.

Historical WBGT records for the tournament dates between June 11 and July 19 were compared with safety thresholds defined by FIFPro. According to these, values above 26 degrees Celsius require additional hydration support and cooling measures. A temperature of 28 degrees Celsius is considered a high-risk limit, at which matches are recommended to be postponed or halted.

The study concluded that about one-quarter of the matches could be played at the first risk threshold. At least five matches are expected to occur under high-risk conditions corresponding to 28 degrees Celsius.

Miami, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Dallas, and Houston were identified as the most concerning cities. In these cities, the return period for WBGT conditions reaching 28 degrees Celsius was calculated as only one year, meaning such conditions could recur almost every year during the tournament days.

Regarding the 26-degree Celsius threshold, Atlanta, Boston, New York, and Monterrey in Mexico show a similar pattern. The research emphasizes that this increased risk is closely linked to the accelerated global warming observed in recent decades.

Warming climate further increases the risk

The study noted that the likelihood of conditions reaching 28 degrees Celsius has at least doubled since 1994 in cities hosting matches such as Los Angeles, Seattle, San Francisco, Monterrey, Toronto, and Vancouver.

Rubén del Campo from the Spanish State Meteorological Agency stated that the global average temperature has increased by 0.5 to 0.7 degrees since 1994. Del Campo noted that while this may seem small, it accounts for about half of the warming over the past one and a half centuries.

He also pointed out that since the mid-1990s, the effects of climate change have become more pronounced worldwide, especially in heatwaves.

These findings align with other studies that have previously scrutinized the tournament due to extreme weather conditions. A study published at the end of 2024 indicated that 10 out of 16 host stadiums carry a "very high" risk of extreme heat, with stadiums in Arlington, Houston, and Monterrey potentially creating more challenging conditions for players and spectators.

Julien Périard, Director of the Institute for Sport and Exercise Research at the University of Canberra, emphasized the need for advance planning in large events and the importance of more proactive policies to reduce heat. Périard reminded that WBGT only considers environmental conditions and does not include the metabolic heat produced by athletes or the heat retention effects of clothing in the model.

FIFA announced that the 2026 World Cup schedule was prepared with a technical analysis for all stadiums, considering average temperatures, cooling infrastructure, public transport, and security conditions. The organization also stated that three-minute water breaks will be implemented during halftime in all tournament matches in response to high-temperature warnings.

However, scientists argue that this may not be sufficient and call for adjustments in players' warm-up times, strengthening cooling infrastructure in stadiums, and stricter medical supervision for both players and fans.