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Former OSCE Secretary General Greminger: Deterrence and diplomacy essential for European security
Former OSCE Secretary General Thomas Greminger stressed that Europe cannot base its security solely on military power, and that deterrence and dialogue must be pursued together, as in the 1967 Harmel Doctrine.
Former Secretary General of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Thomas Greminger made striking assessments about the future of European security in an article he wrote for AA Analysis. Greminger stated that the continent cannot rely solely on military power, and that it needs diplomacy and dialogue alongside deterrence.
Referring to the Harmel Report adopted in 1967, Greminger recalled that NATO concluded at that time that security could not be based solely on military power. According to the report, the alliance needed a credible defense as much as it needed channels through which disputes could be managed.
The legacy of the Harmel Doctrine
The article touched on the debates that flared up in the mid-1960s with France's decision to withdraw from NATO's integrated military command structure. It was stated that the dilemma posed by British Foreign Secretary Michael Stewart in June 1966 — "to secure the alliance's close cohesion" and "to seek a healthier ground for reconciliation between East and West" — gave birth to the Harmel Doctrine a year later.
Greminger wrote that this doctrine demonstrated that military power and political initiative could reinforce each other, reduce risks, and make possible a transition to a more stable security order.
The changing role of the US
Reminding that European countries have strengthened their defense capacities and supported Kyiv since February 2022, Greminger pointed out that Washington will reduce its presence in Europe in the coming years. He noted that the US National Security Strategy document underlined that Europe must "stand on its own feet" and "assume primary responsibility for its own defense."
Greminger stated that at the NATO Defense Ministers' Meeting in February 2026, US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby outlined a new "NATO 3.0" horizon and said that Europe must take more responsibility in conventional defense. Citing Colby's words that "it does not require us to reduce our focus solely to military power," Greminger stressed that this message showed that European security cannot be ensured by deterrence alone.
The balance of deterrence and dialogue
The article recalled that the 1979 NATO Dual-Track Decision assessed the determination to deploy new weapons on the same plane as the offer to sit at the arms control table. It was noted that the joint statement by Ronald Reagan and Helmut Schmidt in 1981 included the words: "Arms control and disarmament; just like deterrence and defense, are integral parts of the Alliance's security policy."
Greminger stated that the Russia-Ukraine war has shattered the environment of trust and shaken the fundamental principles of the European security architecture. Expressing that it is highly likely that European security will be shaped by a spiral of confrontation and deterrence in the coming years, Greminger noted that the real test will be to manage deterrence, the climate of mistrust, and the 5,000-kilometer contact line between the West and Russia in order to prevent escalation.
He stressed that in this process, it is essential that crisis communication channels become operational again, mechanisms to prevent unwanted incidents are established, and agreement is reached on military risk management measures.
The resurgence of the OSCE
Greminger wrote that the strategic weight of the Harmel philosophy today proves that deterrence and dialogue are not opposing concepts, but rather two fundamental pillars that support the same security architecture. Noting that at this point the OSCE could re-emerge as a vital dialogue and negotiation platform, Greminger pointed out that the organization brings together a broad geopolitical axis stretching from North America to Europe, and from Russia and Ukraine to Central Asia under one roof.
Greminger added that Europe cannot build its strategic autonomy solely on deterrence, and that for a more capable Europe, effective diplomacy and broad international engagement are as essential as strong armed forces and a defense industry.
Source: Anadolu Ajansı
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