The 100 days since the war against Iran began have caused a major upheaval in global energy markets. The rapid growth of renewable energy in Europe has provided the continent with some protection against rising oil and gas prices.
As of June 2, solar energy alone was estimated to have contributed 12.8 billion euros to the European economy. However, the European Union still spends billions of euros on fossil fuel imports and remains dependent on its largest liquefied natural gas suppliers, the US and Russia.
LNG Imports Decline in EU, But Situation Varies Across Countries
According to a new analysis by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, the EU's LNG imports have decreased by 1.2% since March. In the United Kingdom, LNG imports fell by 20% during the same period; combined, the two markets saw a total decline of 3%.
Energy analyst Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz from the institute stated that the EU's decision to increase LNG imports in 2022 is now seen as unsustainable. She explained that supply constraints have led to reduced imports, indicating that the Union needs to further reduce gas demand without compromising energy security.
The analysis shows that while many EU countries responded to the recent fossil fuel crisis by limiting LNG imports, some moved in the opposite direction. Germany recorded the sharpest increase among member states, with LNG imports rising 72% between March and May 2026 compared to the same period last year. Italy and Belgium also increased their LNG purchases over the past year.
Dependence on US, Russia, and Other Suppliers Continues
During the first 100 days, the EU's LNG imports remained dependent on US and Russian gas. Following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Europe's LNG imports from Qatar declined.
However, between March and May 2026, the EU's annual LNG imports increased by 5% from the US, 11% from Algeria, 25% from Russia, and 84% from Norway. During this period, 60% of the EU's LNG imports came from the US, up from 56% in the same period last year.
The data indicates that while Europe is trying to diversify its gas supply, it has not fully broken its dependence. Market pressures caused by the war have led some countries to reduce imports, while others have seen new increases.
Energy Bills and Structural Solution Debate
The rise in fossil fuel import costs and over 210 emergency measures taken by member states have resulted in an additional energy bill of approximately 60 billion euros for the EU due to the war. Only a small fraction of this amount has been allocated to structural investments that would reduce current energy exposure and enhance future resilience.
Alice Moscovici, a researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute, noted that less than 5% of these funds—about 2 billion euros—went to electrification measures. According to Moscovici, the lasting solution lies in investments that make energy use more efficient and better aligned with domestic resources.
Domestic renewable resources stand out as the strongest way for the EU to reduce its fossil fuel dependence. Last year, clean energy, especially solar and wind, reduced polluting imports and brought the EU 51 billion euros in savings.
Households are also turning to electrification in response to rising energy prices. Heat pump sales increased by 25% in the first months of the year in France, Germany, and Poland. In the UK, Octopus Energy reported a 51% increase in sales during the first three weeks of March compared to the previous month and the same period last year.
Interest in electric vehicles is also growing across many car platforms in Europe. UK government data revealed that over 27,000 solar energy installations were completed in March 2026, marking the highest monthly figure since 2012.
Electrification and Price Pressure
Adrian Hiel, Director of the Electrification Alliance, emphasized that accelerating the transition to electrification in transport, heating, and industry is critical to reducing dependence on imported fuels and strengthening resilience. He added that this transformation will also save households and businesses tens of billions of euros annually.
Electricity prices in many EU countries still depend on volatile fossil fuels. Due to the merit order mechanism, the most expensive power plant needed to meet demand sets the electricity price.
Nevertheless, investments in renewable energy have begun to break this dependence. Aneta Stefańczyk from the European Climate Neutrality Observatory said that in the first five months of 2026, countries with a low share of fossil fuels in electricity production saw a more favorable ratio between gas and electricity prices.
Stefańczyk noted the difference is especially pronounced. In Spain, the electricity-to-gas price ratio is less than half that of countries more dependent on fossil fuels like Italy or Poland.
According to Ember data, 75% of Spain's electricity was generated from low-carbon sources in 2025. This rate exceeded the EU average of 71%, highlighting the importance of the renewable transition not only for energy security but also for price stability.