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- October 12, 202619°
- BIST10012,151-0.94%
- USD49.220.00%
- EUR55.21+0.28%
- GOLD4,192.60-0.56%
- INTEREST37.00%-1.00
- BITCOIN82,900-0.92%
- October 12, 202619°
France's Population to Peak in 2037 Before Declining
France's population is expected to reach a peak of 69.8 million in 2037, then begin a long-term decline. Official forecasts indicate that natural population growth turned negative in 2025, with growth now driven solely by migration.
France's population is expected to reach 69.8 million in 2037, marking a peak before it begins to decline. Official forecasts reveal that the country's demographic structure, which has appeared stronger than much of Europe for many years, is now under pressure from aging and declining birth rates.
Population growth now driven by migration
Natural population growth in France turned negative in 2025. According to official projections, this trend will continue, and all population growth until 2037 will come from migration.
The country's population is projected to be 69.1 million in 2026, rise to 69.8 million in 2037, and then fall to 65.9 million by 2070. This figure roughly corresponds to the population level in 2014.
Peak arrives earlier than previous estimates
The previous official estimate for France's population peak was made in 2021. That study anticipated the peak around 2044 at approximately 69.3 million. The new projection shows this peak will occur seven years earlier.
If the fertility rate falls below the baseline scenario of 1.45 children per woman or migration weakens, the situation could worsen. In such a case, the population might decline to as low as 54.6 million by 2070.
Impact of an aging society grows
The projections indicate not only a shrinking population but also a significant aging trend. By 2070, one in three people in France is expected to be aged 65 or older.
During this period, the share of the population under 20 years old will drop to about half of current levels. The most dramatic changes will be seen in the oldest age groups.
The population aged 80 and over is expected to rise to around 9 million, more than doubling. The number of people over 100 years old could reach approximately 160,000, quadrupling in size.
This outlook shows that France is not only experiencing a demographic shift on its own but is also affected by the aging pressures that challenge public finances across Europe.
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