US-Iran Tensions Unsettle Markets
The mutual military moves between the US and Iran are weakening the prospect of peace in the Middle East while increasing the perception of geopolitical risk in the markets.
After US President Donald Trump announced that the ceasefire with Iran had ended and that he no longer wanted a deal, US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced it had struck approximately 90 Iranian military targets.
However, Trump later saying that Iran "very much wants" to make a deal with the US partially eased geopolitical concerns.
Oil Prices Rise, Traffic in Strait of Hormuz Declines
As tensions escalated, the price of Brent crude oil touched $80 a barrel yesterday for the first time since June 22. The number of tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply; the count dropped from 14 the previous day to 7 yesterday.
Fed Minutes Signal Rate Hike
The minutes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) released yesterday showed that most officials indicated that a rate hike could be implemented if inflation remains high due to factors such as artificial intelligence demand or the war in the Middle East.
IMF Lowers Global Growth Forecast
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth forecast for this year from 3.1% to 3% in its World Economic Outlook report. The report noted that Turkey's economy is expected to grow by 2.9% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026.
Gold Loses Value Over Three Days
Rising oil prices fueling inflation concerns and expectations of a tight stance from central banks weighed on the price of gold. Gold, which fell 0.7% yesterday, declined for a third consecutive trading day to trade at $4,067.
Mixed Trading in US Stock Markets
In New York, the S&P 500 fell 0.28% and the Dow Jones dropped 1.09%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose 2 basis points to 4.58%.
European Markets Under Selling Pressure
In Europe, geopolitical risks and Trump's trade remarks targeting Spain negatively impacted stock markets. The UK's FTSE 100 fell 1.66%, Germany's DAX 40 dropped 2.23%, France's CAC 40 lost 2.18%, and Italy's FTSE MIB 30 declined 1.22%.
Japan Stands Out Positively in Asia
While selling pressure dominated Asian stock markets, a recovery in the semiconductor sector and news that OpenAI launched new models supported technology shares. Inflation in China coming in below expectations, however, created pressure. The Nikkei 225 rose 1.4%, while the Kospi fell 0.73%, the Shanghai Composite dropped 0.15%, and the Hang Seng declined 0.81%.
Selling Pressure on Borsa Istanbul
The BIST 100 index fell 2.12% yesterday to 14,189.96 points. The dollar/lira closed at 46.8450 and is trading at 46.8710 in the new trading day.
President Erdoğan Assesses NATO Summit
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, speaking after the 36th NATO Summit of Heads of State and Government hosted by Turkey, said: "All allies participated in the summit at the leader level. We see this as a new proof of the trust placed in Turkey and the prestige of our diplomacy."
Technical Levels and Data to Watch
Analysts stated that in the BIST 100 index, 14,100 and 14,000 points are support, while 14,250 and 14,300 points are resistance.
Today, markets will focus on the following data:
- Japan June Machinery Orders
- Germany May Trade Balance
- Turkey weekly monetary and banking statistics
- US weekly jobless claims
- US June existing home sales
