Brent rises to $97.3 in global markets as Fed uncertainty persists

Mixed signals from U.S. employment data and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision came to the fore in global markets. Brent crude began the new week up 1.1% at $97.3 a barrel.

Hormuz tensions shake markets as Brent rises above $97

Global markets are tracking mixed signals from U.S. employment data, expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision and developments in the Middle East in the first trading sessions of the new week.

Among the data released in the United States last week, private-sector employment reported by ADP pointed to a loss of momentum in the labor market, while an increase in nonfarm payrolls led to assessments that the economy remained strong. The concentration of the increase in nonfarm employment in hospitality, food services and the public sector, however, prompted interpretations that the rise could be seasonal.

Market pricing indicates a 58% probability that the Fed will raise its policy rate by 25 basis points at next week’s meeting, compared with a 42% probability that it will leave rates unchanged. Inflation data due in the United States this week are expected to clarify expectations regarding the Fed’s decision.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said monetary policy was not restrictive. Hammack said that the longer inflation remains above target, the harder it will be to bring it down, adding that the time to act had arrived.

U.S. President Donald Trump said employment data had tripled expectations other than his own forecasts and argued that interest rates should be lowered. Trump said markets should rise in response to the strong data and said growth would not cause inflation.

Optimism in the artificial intelligence sector was also among the factors supporting risk appetite in markets. OpenAI announced that a model called GPT-6 Astra had been made available to a limited number of users; the model was described as capable of managing complex computer systems, filling out spreadsheets and designing websites.

Expectations of increased investment in artificial intelligence strengthened demand forecasts for the semiconductor sector. In South Korea, SK Hynix shares rose 7.4%, LG Electronics shares gained 5.1% and Samsung Electronics shares climbed 5%.

Oil prices rise

Oil prices continued to rise as developments involving the United States and Iran heightened concerns over energy supplies. After November-dated Brent crude ended the previous week up 0.8% at $96.3 a barrel, it began the new week up 1.1% at $97.3.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said a U.S.-owned aircraft carrier and a destroyer participating in the naval blockade of Iranian vessels had been targeted with ballistic missiles. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, also announced that a new corridor agreement concerning the entry to and exit from the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz would be signed in the coming days.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 4.78% and began the new week at 4.79%. The dollar index traded flat at 99.2, while gold fell 0.8% to $4,396 an ounce.

European and Asian stocks diverge

Investors in European markets are focused on the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision. Persistently high tensions in the Middle East and concerns over the impact of energy prices on European economies contributed to a negative start to the week for European stock-index futures.

In Germany, the Alternative for Germany party won the Saxony-Anhalt state parliament election with 43.8% of the vote but failed to secure the majority needed to govern alone. On Friday, Italy’s FTSE MIB 30 fell 0.28%, France’s CAC 40 declined 0.09% and Germany’s DAX 40 rose 0.17%.

Expectations surrounding artificial intelligence investment influenced Asian markets. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.9% and South Korea’s Kospi gained 4.1%, while China’s Shanghai Composite fell 0.2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 1.2%. The dollar-yen exchange rate traded flat at 156.09 in Japan.

Türkiye announces medium-term program

The BIST 100 index on Borsa Istanbul ended Friday up 0.57% at 14,012.42 points. The dollar/Turkish lira exchange rate closed Friday at 48.4330 and began the new week at 48.4390 in interbank trading.

Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz announced the Medium-Term Program covering the 2027–2029 period at the Presidential Complex. Yılmaz said they expected inflation to resume declining in the final quarter of 2026 and reach 28.4% at the end of the year.

Yılmaz said the Turkish economy was expected to grow by 3.3% in 2026, with the growth rate projected to reach 4.2% in 2027, 4.6% in 2028 and 5% in 2029.

Germany’s July industrial production, the euro area’s September investor confidence and second-quarter growth data, and Türkiye’s August Treasury cash balance are on the day’s data agenda. U.S. markets will be closed for Labor Day.