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- October 13, 202617°
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- October 13, 202617°
In Fantasy Baseball, Injuries and Unexpected Rising Stars Shape the Agenda
In fantasy baseball leagues, numerous stars like Aaron Judge, Tarik Skubal, and Elly De La Cruz are sidelined due to injuries, challenging team rosters. Meanwhile, players like Austin Riley, Manny Machado, Andrés Muñoz, and some emerging talents stand out as investment or trade opportunities depending on their performance and luck balance.
In the fantasy baseball season, injuries and fluctuating performances are shifting the landscape. Aaron Judge is expected to be re-evaluated after at least four to six weeks due to a rib stress fracture, while many top picks like Tarik Skubal, Elly De La Cruz, Garrett Crochet, and Cal Raleigh are currently sidelined.
Ronald Acuña Jr.'s limping exit from the field has further strained fantasy managers with limited roster depth. The key question during this period is who will return in the short term and who will continue to decline.
A Return Path Opens for Skubal
Tarik Skubal drew attention during his latest rehabilitation just one month after elbow surgery. At the High A level, he generated 16 swing-and-misses and reached a pitch velocity of up to 99 mph.
Skubal is expected to throw a bullpen session on Wednesday and return to the majors by Friday or Saturday. The newly implemented NanoNeedle Scope technology reportedly halves recovery time for bone fragment-related injuries.
However, it will soon become clear whether Skubal has fully regained his form after the new procedure. Still, the accelerated return timeline is a significant development for fantasy teams that suffered major losses early in the season.
Bad Luck and Declining Pace for Austin Riley
Despite staying healthy on the field this season, Austin Riley has failed to meet expectations. His wRC+ dropped to a career-low 80, falling to 22nd among fantasy third basemen and leading to his removal from rosters in some shallower leagues.
Although Atlanta's offense has largely recovered in 2026, Riley slipped to seventh in the rankings. This decline was influenced by an increased strikeout rate and a slight drop in hitting power.
Riley's bad luck is also reflected in the numbers. His .266 BABIP and 10.8% HR/FB rate are among the lowest of his career. Past performance suggests such low production may not persist long.
Pasquantino’s Home Field Struggles Continue
Vinnie Pasquantino is also among the season’s disappointments. Despite being drafted among the top 10 first basemen and within the top 75 overall, he has produced negative fantasy value and dropped to 43rd at his position.
Even though the fences at Kauffman Stadium were brought in for 2026, Pasquantino’s home performance has been underwhelming. As of Tuesday, he posted a 57 wRC+ at home compared to 104 on the road.
Pasquantino has hit only two home runs in Kansas City this year. Despite ranking high in fly ball percentage, he struggles to clear the fences. His declining exit velocity is concerning but also makes him a potential low-cost acquisition.
Bauers Rises Unexpectedly
Jake Bauers, overlooked in drafts, has delivered top-tier fantasy production in the first third of the season. As of Tuesday, he ranked between De La Cruz and Judge, breaking into the top 20 fantasy players.
Bauers’ Statcast data looks strong. His 54.1% hard-hit rate places him in the top 3% of the league, while his 22.1% strikeout rate remains manageable.
Playing in the heart of Milwaukee’s league-leading run-producing lineup, Bauers offers multi-position eligibility. His season projection includes a .286 average, 96 runs, 30 home runs, 109 RBIs, and 13 steals.
Still, Bauers’ history calls for caution. The 30-year-old has underperformed expectations over roughly 2,000 plate appearances before this season and ranked 277th in wRC+ from 2018 to 2025.
Tolle Emerges in Boston
On the Boston Red Sox side, Payton Tolle has been one of the season’s positive surprises. The young left-hander impressed early with spring training and Triple-A performances, entering a game against Tampa Bay with a 2.28 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.
Tolle is not expected to maintain these exact numbers through the season’s end. However, his 20.3% K-BB rate ranks him 12th among qualified starters.
His four-seam fastball stands out, having produced the highest swinging-strike rate in the lower leagues last season and holding hitters to the lowest hard-hit percentage in the majors this year.
While a healthy Garrett Crochet remains Boston’s top starter, his struggles and injury setbacks in 2026 have opened the door for Tolle. Although Connelly Early, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suárez are on the roster, Tolle ranks higher in performance.
Tolle’s 108 innings pitched last season raise the possibility of an innings limit in 2026. Nevertheless, he has emerged as one of the best waiver-wire pickups this season.
Closer Chaos and Shifting Roles
One of the most chaotic areas this season has been the closer role. Alex Lange appears to have taken over for struggling Lucas Erceg in Kansas City, becoming the biggest free-agent prize in fantasy this week.
In the past week, only five relievers have recorded multiple saves, and 75 different bullpen players have closed games in the last month. The Chicago Cubs have not recorded a save since May 14, while Jordan Romano has earned 66.7% of the Angels’ saves.
In Milwaukee, Abner Uribe seems to have lost the closer role after a notable gesture, and Trevor Megill’s health status remains uncertain. Joel Kuhnel’s pitch velocity increased by about 5 mph after being traded to the Brewers, drawing attention.
San Francisco continues to exhibit a chaotic bullpen structure. However, Edwin Díaz is showing signs of recovery and is considered worth retaining in this environment.
Patience Test for Machado and Muñoz
Manny Machado has underperformed for more than the first two months of the season. Although his hitting power declined, bad luck has dragged him down further; as of Tuesday, he had a .167 BABIP, 35 points below the second-worst among 161 qualified hitters.
Machado’s walk rate has reached a career high, but his run production remains low. This imbalance suggests he is not a hitter to be completely written off.
Similarly, Andrés Muñoz in Seattle shows a divergence between results and underlying metrics. Despite a 5.18 ERA, his 2.52 SIERA paints a much stronger profile.
Muñoz maintains his velocity and stuff quality, with an improved K-BB ratio compared to last year. His whiff rate ranks among the league’s top three, and his LOB and home run prevention rates are expected to normalize.
Therefore, Muñoz is considered to have retained his closer role, with a chance for his poor results to improve. Jeff Hoffman is also mentioned as a potential rebound candidate, though Louis Varland’s form has pushed him down in fantasy rankings.
Young Talents Await Opportunities
On the St. Louis side, Joshua Báez exploded over the past two weeks with six home runs and a 1.373 OPS. The return of Lars Nootbaar to the outfield, Victor Scott II’s demotion to the minors, and Ivan Herrera’s hot streak opening the designated hitter spot could pave the way for Báez’s call-up.
Báez’s 32.1% strikeout rate in Triple-A remains a concern. Nevertheless, he is talked about as having future potential for 30 home runs and 30 steals.
In deeper leagues, Cole Carrigg and Braden Montgomery stand out as two outfield prospects to watch. Carrigg offers speed, while Montgomery brings more power potential.
The picture is clear for fantasy managers: injuries challenge rosters, some stars underperform, and others quietly gain value. At this stage of the season, holding the right player and knowing when to let go have become equally crucial.
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