Long-term investors, considered among the strongest believers in Bitcoin, have joined the selling wave in the cryptocurrency market in recent weeks. Compass Point analyst Ed Engel said this move could indicate that the final stages of the ongoing decline in Bitcoin are approaching.
Long-term holders are defined as investors who have held their coins for at least 155 days. According to Engel, this group remained largely passive between February and April but turned to selling in recent weeks.
Highlights
- Approximately $2.4 billion worth of Bitcoin was sold in the last two days.
- 26% of sales in the last 30 days came from investors who bought Bitcoin above $90,000.
- Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows for the 11th consecutive day.
- Bitcoin declined by 10% on a weekly basis.
Long-term investors turned to selling
Engel noted that the approximately $2.4 billion worth of sales in the last two days significantly affected Bitcoin's supply-demand balance. According to him, especially the selling by investors who have been waiting for a long time increased pressure on the market.
The analyst said 26% of Bitcoin sales in the last 30 days came from investors who bought coins above $90,000. Engel stated that this group remained resilient throughout the bear market but eventually started to give up as Bitcoin approached new cycle lows.
Buyers above $90,000 also stepped back
The selling by this investor group was interpreted as a sign that even the strongest buyers in the market have weakened. Engel said this is a common scenario in the late stages of bear markets.
According to the analyst, this development strengthened the expectation that the downtrend in Bitcoin may have entered its final phase. However, whether the price pressure will continue depends on fund flows and investor appetite in the coming days.
ETF outflows increased pressure
Bitcoin ETFs were another indicator supporting the selling pressure. According to SoSoValue data, funds recorded net outflows for the 11th consecutive day, marking the longest outflow streak to date.
It was noted that Bitcoin lost 10% of its value since the beginning of the week. Fear-driven sales seen on Monday accelerated after Strategy's small sale of 32 coins, leading to the liquidation of long positions.
Both narratives of the market are being questioned
It was reported that Bitcoin is struggling to approach the record level above $126,000 seen in October. While uncertainty around the US-Iran war put pressure on the price, stock markets reached new records.
This divergence opened up debate on Bitcoin's two main narratives. The market is questioning whether Bitcoin is a kind of digital gold expected to gain strength amid geopolitical uncertainty or if it behaves like a high-beta technology stock.
Institutional flows continue to be decisive
Citi analyst Alex Saunders said the main driver of Bitcoin's price increase is ETF flows. Saunders stated that about 45% of the weekly return change can be explained by these flows.
Saunders also noted that flows have recently been negative and the likelihood of passing market structure regulation legislation in the US has decreased. According to him, unless there are positive regulatory news or developments increasing concerns about public finance, market sentiment may remain weak.
Context: Bitcoin has recently been under pressure due to both institutional fund outflows and sales by large investors. Analysts closely watch the shift to selling by long-term holders as an important signal about which stage the decline is in.