Leaders of NATO's 32 member countries gathered today for the Ankara summit, where increasing defense spending and support for Ukraine are on the agenda.
Hosted by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the summit is also attended by U.S. President Donald Trump and other leaders. The two-day summit includes non-member countries such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung. Additionally, Australia, Japan, and New Zealand have sent their defense or foreign ministers, while Gulf countries affected by the U.S.-Israel war on Iran—Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates—are also represented. Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa will not attend the summit but will hold a bilateral meeting with Trump in Ankara.
Trump's Demands from NATO
After last year's summit in The Hague adopted the goal of raising member countries' defense spending to 5 percent of GDP by 2035, Trump continues to pressure allies this year. Of that target, 3.5 percentage points will be allocated to military spending and 1.5 points to security-related needs.
Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı, Turkey regional director of the German Marshall Fund, said NATO will focus this year on implementing last year's pledges, stating, "NATO allies decided last year in The Hague to raise defense spending to 5 percent, and European allies have taken steps to strengthen their defense industries." Ünlühisarcıklı added that the discussion in Ankara this year will be about how to turn spending into capability, saying, "Therefore, the alliance is stronger than last year."
However, Paolo von Schirach, president of the Global Policy Institute, noted that capability gains from increased spending will take years, commenting, "More orders mean more military equipment, but that only happens over time. You can spend a lot and get very little."
Ukraine's Expectations from the Summit
Ukrainian President Zelensky, whose country is not a NATO member, will hold a bilateral meeting with Trump on Wednesday. Zelensky plans to request additional Patriot air defense systems in the face of intensifying Russian attacks. A drone attack on the capital Kyiv on Monday morning killed at least 11 people.
Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said Ukraine expects allies to signal that "this support will be sustained." Watling stated that the aim is "to show Russia that there will be no reduction in Ukraine's defense capacity over the next 12 to 24 months."
Watling said, "There is a direct relationship between the number of interceptor missiles provided to Ukraine and the damage Russia can inflict with ballistic missiles."
Issues Europe Is Trying to Resolve
The billions of dollars in contracts that European countries are expected to announce at the summit are seen by some analysts as an effort to appease the Trump administration.
After European countries did not join the war on Iran, Trump said he wanted their "loyalty," not their money. He also added that he might not have attended the summit had it not been hosted by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Turkey, for its part, has not only increased its defense spending in recent years but has also become one of NATO's largest military exporters.
Tensions over defense spending remain high. On the eve of the summit, Trump described Germany's defense spending as "ridiculous." Chancellor Friedrich Merz defended his country's budget, saying, "This is the greatest effort we have ever made to strengthen our defense capabilities."
U.S. Withdrawal Steps
Going beyond rhetoric, the U.S. announced the gradual withdrawal of fighter jets, destroyers, and submarines from NATO countries. Watling commented, "Fewer U.S. infantry in Europe would be effective for messaging but means little," while adding, "The withdrawal of U.S. air power has a more tangible impact."
Analysis: A Political Summit
According to analysts, a key question is whether the alliance can project an image of unity amid this rhetoric and withdrawals.
Von Schirach of the Global Policy Institute said, "The fundamental value of this summit is political; it shows that allies are still talking, still gathering, and still trying to project an image of unity, even though underlying disagreements and doubts have not disappeared." "Ankara is a summit of reassurance and signaling rather than concrete, immediate changes on the ground."
