As temperatures in Turkey are expected to remain above seasonal averages this summer, the risk of meteorological natural disasters may increase. Prof. Dr. Orhan Şen issued a warning that strong storm clouds known as supercells could become more frequent.
Increase in Meteorological Natural Disasters
Prof. Dr. Orhan Şen stated that natural disasters caused by weather conditions may be more frequent this year compared to previous years. He emphasized that rising temperatures could also intensify the impact of local and sudden weather events.
Şen noted that this season appears likely to experience more frequent events triggered by weather conditions and meteorological parameters. He explained that short-term heavy rain, hail, strong winds, and lightning pose significant risks.
How Do Supercells Form?
Şen explained that what is commonly called a supercell is actually a very powerful cumulonimbus cloud. These clouds are accompanied by thunder, lightning, and sudden rainfall.
According to the expert, the distinguishing feature of supercells is the very strong vertical air movements inside them. Raindrops are carried upward by strong currents within the cloud, freeze when they rise above the zero-degree level, and then fall back down, growing layer by layer into hailstones.
Şen described how this cycle can cause hailstones to grow to the size of walnuts, and in some cases, even apples. Therefore, one of the most dangerous outcomes of supercells is heavy hailstorms.
Localized and Sudden Impact
Prof. Dr. Şen emphasized that supercells differ from classic rain systems that cover wide areas. According to him, these formations develop at a single point depending on local environmental conditions rather than as a large regional system.
Şen said that the topography and surface temperature of the area where these clouds form are decisive. As a result, the impact can sometimes appear suddenly in a very narrow area.
More Frequent in Spring and Early Summer
Şen noted that these types of clouds tend to appear more frequently in spring and early summer. He recalled a recent example in Niğde, where a single cloud suddenly arrived, bringing heavy rain and hail.
According to Şen, one person lost their life and four others were injured during that event. The expert highlighted how sudden and destructive such developments can be.
Humidity and Temperature Are Key Factors
Şen stated that two main factors in supercell formation are humidity and temperature. As temperatures rise, the likelihood of these systems forming increases, and moist air coming from the sea strengthens the effect.
He explained that when high temperatures, excess humidity, and moist air from the sea combine, clouds become much more powerful, leading to very intense local rainfall.
Risk May Increase in Inner Aegean, Central Anatolia, and Black Sea Regions
Şen said that temperatures are expected to be higher this year, with some regions facing greater risk. The Inner Aegean, Central Anatolia, and the Black Sea region—especially Central and Western Black Sea—are among the areas more likely to experience the effects of these single-cell clouds.
Şen noted that it is difficult to predict exactly where supercells will form days in advance. Therefore, meteorological warnings should be closely monitored.
Experts Advise Following Official Announcements
Experts warn that with rising temperatures in summer, local, sudden, and intense rainfall events may increase. Due to hail, lightning, strong winds, and short-term heavy showers, citizens are advised to regularly follow official meteorological warnings.
