Russia's crude oil exports have reached their highest level since the start of the war in Ukraine. An increase in seaborne shipments and the disabling of some domestic refining capacity due to Ukrainian drone attacks pushed export volumes to record levels.
Tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg shows that Russia's four-week average crude oil exports rose to 4.13 million barrels per day in the period ending June 28. This was the highest level seen since 2022. Weekly shipments hit an all-time record of 4.63 million barrels per day.
The total volume of Russian oil transported by sea reached approximately 133 million barrels, marking a 34% increase compared to mid-April. Shipment backlogs have begun to appear off the coast of Egypt and east of Singapore, indicating difficulties in releasing some quantities to the market.
Revenues decline
Despite the record increase in export volumes, Russia has not achieved a similar financial gain. Weekly revenue from oil exports on a four-week average fell to about $1.9 billion, the lowest level since March. The decline was driven by a fall in global prices and a corresponding decrease in the price of Urals crude oil.
The average price of Urals oil loaded from Baltic ports fell to $62.66 per barrel, while Urals shipped from the Black Sea dropped to $62.18 per barrel. Russia's ESPO crude oil was traded at $74.27.
Market observers assess that Moscow may have to make deeper discounts for its crude oil, especially if demand from China and India, the largest buyers of Russian oil, remains weak, or if exemptions for Iranian oil are extended after mid-August.
Refinery attacks and domestic pressures
The increase in exports coincided with a period of continued Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries. The attacks have led to crude oil that cannot be processed domestically being diverted for export. Recent attacks targeted facilities in Ufa, Yaroslavl, and Slavyansk-na-Kuban, as well as the Moscow Refinery. Estimates suggest the Moscow Refinery could remain offline until the end of the year.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said the country is experiencing fuel supply problems, with shortages and queues at gas stations in some regions. Putin stated that the government has set up a task force working around the clock to resolve the crisis and ensure supply. He said gasoline reserves currently stand at about 1.7 million tons, with production expected to increase in July, adding that a full ban on diesel exports is being considered to stabilize the domestic market. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak had previously stated that such a step is not necessary for now.
Putin also emphasized that fuel supply to the agricultural sector will be prioritized during the harvest season, calling it essential for the continuity of agricultural production.
Shift to Asian markets
The data showed that exports to Asian markets – including shipments whose final destination has not yet been specified – rose to 3.98 million barrels per day in the four-week period ending June 28, also the highest level since 2022. Shipments to China averaged about 1.08 million barrels per day, while the declared amount to India fell to 740,000 barrels per day. More than 2.1 million barrels per day of oil was carried by tankers whose final destination has not yet been disclosed. This practice, common in Russian oil trade since Western sanctions began, reflects a strategy of keeping the direction of shipments hidden.
Economic impacts
The developments in the energy sector coincide with a slowdown in the Russian economy. Russian Central Bank Deputy Chairman Alexey Zabotkin said that the fuel sector operating below full capacity for several months could negatively affect economic performance this year.
The Russian Central Bank had previously forecast gross domestic product growth of between 0.5% and 1.5% for 2026. Concerns are being raised that ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure will increase pressure on economic activity.
