Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's statement that Russian airspace would "effectively close" has raised concerns that civil aviation could become a new pressure point in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Zelenskyy warned airlines and insurance companies using Russian airspace on September 1 and asked foreign ambassadors in Ukraine and Moscow to convey the message to their capitals. The Ukrainian leader also said that drone activity in Russian airspace would increase.
Economic target beyond military pressure
Ukraine's decision to bring the issue before the International Civil Aviation Organization indicates that the approach may not be limited to military objectives. Kyiv asked the organization to support a complete ban by member states on civil flights in Russian airspace.
The main consequence of this approach may be an increase in operational and economic costs for foreign carriers, rather than the physical closure of Russian airspace. Possible effects include higher insurance expenses, changes to flight plans, reduced services and the withdrawal of some companies from the Russian market.
The temporary closure of Russian airports because of drone activity and the long-term perception of Russian airspace as a security risk by foreign carriers could produce different results. The former would mainly cause operational disruptions, while the latter could lead to more lasting economic and commercial effects.
Potential effects on Türkiye and Turkish Airlines
After the Russia-Ukraine conflict began, many airlines based in Europe and North America suspended their Russian operations, increasing the importance of Türkiye, China, Central Asia and the Gulf countries in Russia's international connections.
Istanbul has become one of the hubs offering Russian passengers extensive international connections, while Turkish Airlines stands out as the foreign airline operating the most frequent flights to Russia. For this reason, security pressure on Russian airspace could directly or indirectly affect air links between Türkiye and Russia.
Since most airlines based in the United States and Europe already avoid Russian airspace, additional civil aviation isolation may impose limited new costs on those companies. By contrast, airlines from Türkiye, China and the Gulf countries that maintain connections with Russia could face new economic and operational costs.
Tourism ties
Russian President Vladimir Putin said during a meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on September 1 that the number of Russian tourists visiting Türkiye had reached 6.9 million in 2025.
Zelenskyy's statement targeting airlines and insurance companies was made on the same day, but there is insufficient data to establish a direct causal link between the two statements. Nevertheless, a persistent security risk in Russian airspace could affect a wide range of areas, from Turkish Airlines' operations and insurance costs to flight planning and passenger demand.
If the risk reaches a level that makes it more difficult for Russian tourists to travel to Türkiye, the effects could extend beyond the aviation sector to tourism. In that case, Moscow may not be the only party expected to bear the cost of aviation pressure on Russia.
The picture for third countries
There is no concrete evidence showing that Ukraine's policy is being shaped by the direction of other actors. However, parallels are being drawn between the approach aimed at reducing the use of Russian airspace and Western policies seeking to further restrict Russia's economic and international connections.
As airlines from countries that maintain air links with Russia face cost and operational pressure, the transport connections Moscow has developed with countries outside the West could also weaken. Türkiye occupies a particular position in this process because of Turkish Airlines' network in Russia, Istanbul's role as a transit hub and visits by millions of Russian tourists.
The future of Russian airspace is therefore not viewed solely as an issue of civil aviation safety in Russia. Developments also constitute an issue that must be closely monitored because of Türkiye's economic interests and the sustainability of air links between Türkiye and Russia.
