Aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose to $3,216.40 per ton, hitting the highest level in about six weeks. The uptick was driven by low stock levels and ongoing supply concerns.
LME Aluminum Stocks at Historic Lows
In July, global aluminum production excluding China fell 6.7% compared to the same period last year. Slowing production at some smelters in the Middle East and China maintaining its 45-million-ton production cap heightened supply concerns. Amid geopolitical tensions, consumers opted to draw down existing inventories rather than turning to exchange stocks, pushing LME aluminum stocks to their lowest in a century. Alcoa's downward revision of its production forecast due to disruptions at its refinery in Australia further tightened the supply outlook.
New Investments Could Ease Supply
On the other hand, new investments expected to ease supply pressures are being closely watched. The Slovalco smelter in Slovakia is planned to restart production in the fourth quarter of 2026. A new plant in the US state of Missouri is also expected to come online by the end of the year. Emirates Global Aluminium continues capacity expansion work at its Al Taweelah facility. Experts believe that although the current supply squeeze persists, the planned new capacities could support market balance in the coming period.