The East-West (Petroline) pipeline, which connects production centers in eastern Saudi Arabia to Yanbu Port on the western coast, allows oil to reach the Red Sea by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. However, the security of shipments after Yanbu is entirely dependent on maritime transport. While oil destined for Europe can be transported via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline, tankers heading to Asia must pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to reach the Indian Ocean.
Attacks by Yemen's Houthis on commercial vessels and growing security risks at Bab el-Mandeb have put the Petroline’s maritime leg back in the spotlight. According to Kpler data, the number of commodity ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb on July 26 dropped to 11, the lowest daily level in recent months.
The critical role of Petroline and Yanbu
The Yanbu South Terminal, commissioned by Saudi Aramco in 2018, added 3 million barrels per day to the country’s crude oil export capacity on the western coast. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the Petroline has a nominal capacity of 5 million barrels per day and was temporarily able to transport up to 7 million barrels per day following a 2019 adjustment. However, this capacity does not mean that the same volume of oil can be delivered uninterrupted to global markets. Loading capabilities at Yanbu, tanker availability, port operations, and security conditions in the Red Sea determine actual exports.
SUMED offers an alternative for Europe
Risks in the Red Sea have brought Egypt's SUMED pipeline, with a capacity of 2.5 million barrels per day, back to the fore. The pipeline carries crude oil from the Ain Sokhna Terminal on the Red Sea coast to the Sidi Kerir Terminal on the Mediterranean. However, both the SUMED and Suez options require tankers to use the northern Red Sea, meaning these routes do not entirely eliminate security risks in the region.
Asia's vulnerability is higher
According to International Energy Agency (IEA) data, about 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and roughly 80 percent of that goes to Asian markets. Therefore, even if a potential disruption at Hormuz were to be offset via the Petroline, the continuation of shipments to Asia would depend on safe passage through Bab el-Mandeb. A prolonged disruption could increase delivery times as well as freight and insurance costs.
According to the IEA, the alternative export capacity available through pipelines bypassing Hormuz in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates stands at 3.5–5.5 million barrels per day. This capacity is insufficient to fully replace the total volume of oil passing through Hormuz.
Experts emphasize the need for multiple export options
MEES Managing Editor Jamie Ingram said that security risks in the Red Sea could complicate Saudi Arabia's alternative export operations. He noted that shipments could be redirected north to the Suez Canal and SUMED pipeline, but this would increase voyage times and transportation costs.
Stating that the Petroline remains critically important for regional oil, Ingram stressed that the primary priority in energy security is to provide uninterrupted supply to customers, adding, "Reliably supplying customers now requires having multiple export options. More diverse pipeline routes will be developed in the coming years."
Ingram added that Asia remains the core market for Middle Eastern producers, meaning that Asian importers could be more affected than Europe by potential disruptions in the region.
