The price per barrel of Brent crude oil fell back below $90 after a surge that shook global markets. Brent dropped 6.15% in yesterday's trading, closing at $89.15, and today it remained near $89.
This marks the first time Brent crude has tested below the $90 mark since April 17. The price drop to this level indicates a significant easing of the risk premium that had escalated in recent weeks due to developments centered in the Middle East.
Expectations Between the US and Iran Pull Prices Down
Earlier this week, rising tensions between the US and Iran pushed oil prices up to $98 on Monday. However, subsequent signals reversed the market direction.
US President Donald Trump stated that negotiations were nearing completion and that an agreement, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, was close. The White House's decision to postpone planned attacks on Iran further strengthened the downward trend.
These developments eased investors' risk perceptions, reducing the upward pressure on oil caused by concerns over war, sanctions, and supply.
Fuel Price Reduction Expectations Strengthen
The sharp decline in oil prices has also shifted expectations regarding fuel prices in the domestic market. Industry experts suggest that if Brent remains at or below $90, discounts at the pump could be considered.
As of June 12, gasoline is sold at 62.99 Turkish lira per liter and diesel at 66.36 lira per liter in Istanbul's European side. Since mid-May, a downward trend in pump prices has been noticeable.
Significant Fluctuations Throughout the Year
Brent crude opened the year at $61 per barrel and rose to $119.50 in March due to developments in the Middle East. From early April, ceasefire and negotiation processes prevented sharper price increases.
However, delays in reaching a final agreement kept oil prices around $100 for an extended period. The recent decline has strengthened expectations that this balance may shift again.
Focus on the Strait of Hormuz
Factors limiting the price shock included weakening demand in China, increased US oil exports, the release of strategic reserves, and the commissioning of alternative pipelines in the Middle East.
Markets are now focused on whether the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil supply passes, will be fully reopened. Developments in this corridor are expected to be decisive for oil and fuel prices in the coming days.
