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Iran War Threatens Global Food Security
Experts warn that the Iran war could disrupt fertilizer trade through the Strait of Hormuz, causing price increases and production pressures in global food security...
The Iran war has become a new threat to global food security. Experts warn that the crisis could extend beyond oil prices to affect fertilizer supply and agricultural production.
Máximo Torero Cullen, chief economist at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, stated that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have become a critical tipping point for global food security. Before Iran closed the maritime corridor, about one-third of the world's fertilizer trade transported by sea passed through this route.
The World Bank predicts that fertilizer prices could rise by an average of 31% this year due to the conflict. Torero said this shock in the supply chain has created an unprecedented impact on agricultural inputs, which could affect global food production until next year.
The effects of this pressure will not be felt equally in every country. Countries highly dependent on food and fertilizer imports are expected to be more severely affected. South Asia, East Africa, and the Middle East are considered particularly vulnerable regions.
According to a United Nations analysis, even moderate disruptions in the supply chain could lead to increased hunger and poverty for tens of millions of people. If problems persist into next year, global food consumption could remain under pressure for at least four years.
Experts advocate protecting farmers and supporting food supply in the short term. Torero also highlights the need for a longer-term structural transformation, which should include reducing dependence on fossil fuels.
Debate on Fossil Fuel Dependence
Jasper Verschuur, a researcher at Oxford University's Environmental Change Institute, said one of the main reasons for the system's vulnerability is its dependence on energy prices. Verschuur suggested that more localized production models and the "green ammonia" approach produced with renewable energy could help build a more resilient supply chain in the future.
However, establishing this infrastructure could take years and require significant funding. It is emphasized that the food system depends on fossil fuels not only in fertilizer production but also in transporting products worldwide. More localized supply chains could somewhat decouple food prices from energy costs.
Benjamin Selwyn, an international development and international relations researcher at the University of Sussex in the UK, stated that food security is not only about being able to import products but also depends on production capacity. Selwyn noted that local food systems are an important part of the solution.
He also said that sustainable farming methods known as agroecology could buffer against commodity price fluctuations. This approach includes growing multiple crops together, using animal manure as fertilizer, small-scale farming, and reducing fertilizer and pesticide needs with precision agriculture technologies like drones.
Biofuel Warning and Climate Pressure
Experts warn that using food products for biofuel production could pose risks to food security, especially during periods of fertilizer shocks. The United Nations has urged governments not to increase biofuel demand that would intensify competition between food and fuel during supply shortages.
Mike Badzmierowski, US agricultural policy manager at the World Resources Institute, said corn is one of the crops most dependent on fertilizer and yet is widely used in engines. He argued that biofuel production from food crops should be reduced.
According to experts, more sustainable adaptations could respond not only to geopolitical instability but also to pressures from climate change. The World Meteorological Organization announced that the exceptionally strong El Niño conditions developing in the tropical Pacific could affect crop yields through extreme weather events this year.
Badzmierowski said the greatest risk is the overlap of different shocks. Experts believe that when the energy crisis, fertilizer supply pressures, and extreme weather events are considered together, the global food system becomes more vulnerable.
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