China and Russia hold joint air and naval drills near Japan

Chinese and Russian bombers and warships conducted simultaneous air and naval maneuvers near Japan and Taiwan, reinforcing their deterrence messages in the Western Pacific.

The People's Liberation Army of China and the Russian Armed Forces showcased their military presence in the Western Pacific through simultaneous air and naval operations. The joint strategic air patrol conducted over the Sea of Japan, the East China Sea, and the Western Pacific, along with the passage of warships through the Tsushima Strait, has painted a new picture of the power balance in the region.

11th Joint Strategic Flight

According to reports in the Chinese state media, the two countries have conducted 11 joint strategic air patrols since 2019. Military expert Jang Şiu-Fing, in an assessment to the Global Times, highlighted two key features of this year's sorties.

Jang first emphasized the "integrated system approach" that incorporates bombers, fighter jets, electronic warfare aircraft, early warning, and aerial refueling platforms. Secondly, he highlighted the high level of combat readiness achieved through live munitions, advanced radar detection, and jamming capabilities.

Immediate Reaction from Tokyo and Seoul

According to the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the Japanese and South Korean air forces rapidly scrambled their combat aircraft in response to the latest joint patrol. The Tokyo administration confirmed it had tracked Chinese H-6 bombers, Russian Tu-95s, and their escorting fighter jets.

It was reported that some aircraft used the vital Miyako Strait, which opens from the East China Sea into the Western Pacific. Seoul announced that more than ten Chinese and Russian warplanes had entered its Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), but that its sovereign airspace had not been violated. This is seen as a calculated move aimed at applying constant pressure at the legal boundary without directly breaching engagement rules.

Simultaneous Naval Passage in the Tsushima Strait

Notable coordination was displayed in the naval dimension. According to an SCMP report, a group of Chinese Navy Type 055 and D-052 class destroyers passed through the Tsushima Strait heading toward the East China Sea. The Japanese Defense Ministry reported that ships of the Russian Pacific Fleet, which had just completed a four-day technical visit to the Chinese port of Qingdao, also made their return passage through the same strait shortly before.

The consecutive use of the same waterways and strategic straits by Chinese and Russian ships is interpreted as an unannounced pattern of operational coordination aimed at increasing military activity near Japan's waters and building joint pressure capabilities.

Japan's Two-Pronged Strategy

Chinese military sources describe Japan's harassments around the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning as "exaggerated" reactions intended to legitimize a larger military buildup. The SCMP, however, reported that Tokyo's response is not limited to tactical countermeasures, as it is deepening its security architecture through regional alliances.

Japan's signing of a defense cooperation agreement with Indonesia, talks on transferring used destroyers to the Philippine Navy, and its full participation with combat units in the "Balikatan" exercises conducted by the US and the Philippines are seen as an effort to embed itself in a broader trans-Pacific alliance structure stretching from Washington to Jakarta and Manila in the Indo-Pacific.

Structural Vulnerability of the US Fleet

An analysis in the Asia Times highlighted a perhaps key strategic dimension of the deterrence equation by examining the "repair gap" crisis in the US Navy. The report warned that the capacity to repair damaged Arleigh Burke-class destroyers in the Indo-Pacific region is far below the requirements of a potential major war with China.

According to data cited from a The War Zone report, which in turn referenced intelligence slides from the theater, China's shipbuilding capacity is fully 232 times that of the United States. With Washington having only eight major military dry docks, the decline of its logistics fleet in a prolonged war of attrition risks transforming the US into a force more focused on "base defense" than open-ocean offense.

New Deterrence Architecture

According to military and political analyses, the cumulative moves by China and Russia near Japan and Taiwan are part of a long-term deterrence strategy, beyond temporary sorties. The increasing frequency of complex air and naval formations, the use of vital straits, and symbolic contacts between the two navies point to a "high-intensity" preparedness pattern aimed at making rivals accept higher risk levels on the front lines.

For Beijing and Moscow, these joint flights serve as training to perfect power integration in potential conflict zones near their borders. For Washington and its allies, they are interpreted as a warning that the deterrence balance in the Western Pacific is being reshaped not just by the number of missiles and aircraft, but by who possesses the industrial and organizational capacity to keep their fleet at sea and in the air the longest.