- BIST10011,722-2.89%
- USD49.45+0.05%
- EUR55.62+0.37%
- GOLD4,181.10+0.26%
- INTEREST37.00%-1.00
- BITCOIN81,707+0.40%
- October 18, 202611°
- BIST10011,722-2.89%
- USD49.45+0.05%
- EUR55.62+0.37%
- GOLD4,181.10+0.26%
- INTEREST37.00%-1.00
- BITCOIN81,707+0.40%
- October 18, 202611°
El Niño threatens India's rice production, prices could rise
The El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to negatively affect rice production in India. Experts warn that global rice prices could reach their highest level since the 2008 food crisis.
Anatoliy Tihonov, Director of the International Agricultural Business and Food Security Center at the Russian Presidential Academy, said the El Niño weather phenomenon could destroy India's rice harvest and push global prices to their highest level since the 2008 food crisis.
United Nations (UN) Secretary-General António Guterres said in June that there is a 90 percent chance El Niño will take hold in the coming months and will "fuel further warming of the planet." Guterres also noted the weather phenomenon could disrupt food and water systems.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) also warned that El Niño could weaken the summer monsoon across large parts of India, stressing rice and corn crops during their critical growth period.
Tihonov said, "India is the absolute leader in rice consumption and exports. A lack of moisture during grain filling in August-September could reduce gross yields. The rice market is extremely fragmented and sensitive to shortages; any withdrawal of 15-20 million tons from world trade would trigger panic spikes."
India accounts for 40 percent of the global rice market. Production is concentrated in eastern and northern states such as West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Odisha, and Bihar. However, these regions are at risk from El Niño, with drought expected and harvests likely to decline in August-September.
The expert recalled that India has banned broken rice exports and imposed a 20 percent tax on white rice exports. Tihonov said, "Faced with a weak monsoon, these measures could be tightened to a complete ban on non-basmati rice exports, as happened in 2023."
Tihonov predicts that if India imposes a full export ban, world rice prices could reach $700-$750 per ton. That would be the absolute record level since the 2008 food crisis.
Meanwhile, Russia's rice market is entirely self-sufficient. Tihonov said, "Even in the worst season, Russia's rice harvest is more than one and a half times the country's needs. The safety margin is enormous." In 2025, the gross rice harvest amounted to 1.19-1.24 million tons, while annual domestic consumption, including new regions, does not exceed 798,000 tons according to estimates by the National Rice Union.
Stay Updated with The Turkiye Times
Subscribe to be informed about special news, developments and announcements. We will keep you informed.
By signing up, you agree to our Privacy Policy
