Former NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer penned a comprehensive analysis of the alliance's future as the Ankara Summit approaches. In his article for AA Analysis, Scheffer emphasized that NATO is undergoing a new transformation process he calls "NATO 3.0" and that the summit is a vital turning point in this process.
Full Speed Ahead to NATO 3.0
Scheffer recalled that NATO, which defended Europe under the American umbrella during the Cold War, evolved into an "expeditionary" force with cross-border operational capability after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Noting that the ISAF mission in Afghanistan was the most concrete example of this transformation, the former secretary general stated that the alliance, now shaped by artificial intelligence and confronting the reality of hybrid warfare, is advancing full speed into the "NATO 3.0" phase.
Scheffer noted that the Ankara Summit must reach consensus on a series of vital issues in this new era, saying the most fundamental priority is for allies to fully meet their financial obligations. Recalling that a commitment was made last year in The Hague to raise defense spending to 5 percent, through a 3.5 percent increase and an additional 1.5 percent increase, Scheffer stated that Ankara will conduct a comprehensive accounting of the extent to which these commitments have been implemented.
Pointing out that beyond the financial framework, the alliance must simultaneously manage the ongoing war in Ukraine and the complex picture in the Middle East, Scheffer said, "Although direct intervention in the Middle East is not part of NATO's mission definition, the fact that global security is an indivisible whole cannot be denied." He stressed that the Russia-Ukraine war is of vital importance to the alliance and that the uncompromising defense of the eastern flank must remain the top priority.
Premature Obituaries and NATO's Resilience
Underscoring that NATO will not dissolve despite the current spiral of crises, Scheffer recalled that the alliance has repeatedly been declared "gravely ill" or even "dead" throughout history, yet each time it has quickly adapted to new dynamics and survived. Noting that developments in China and the Indo-Pacific are also on NATO's strategic agenda but that this does not mean a direct military presence, Scheffer once again pointed to the indivisibility of global security.
Scheffer said the only condition for the alliance to maintain its deterrent posture is for European allies to take the initiative and shoulder a much larger share of the common burden in defense spending. Expressing that U.S. President Donald Trump is right on this point, the former secretary general assessed, "No matter how you look at it, Trump is right."
Turkey's Strategic Weight
Stating that holding the summit in Turkey this year is a timely and apt confirmation of the country's influential status, Scheffer noted that with its dynamic population of 80 million and its highly competent, massive army, Turkey offers tremendous added value to NATO. Recalling that the last summit in Turkey was held in 2004, Scheffer emphasized that the time had long since come to reassume the hosting role and that this decision is a clear acknowledgment of Turkey's political and military weight on the global stage.
Scheffer added that the alliance needs to scale up its goal of effectively defending its flanks and that Turkey plays a vital role at the very center of this strategy.
Future Scenario: The 'Europeanization' of Security
Scheffer stated that NATO's future course must be built on a scenario in which European allies themselves shoulder the burden of their own security, and that Trump's view that "Europe must do much more as an ally" is entirely valid. In this context, he said it is highly likely that a gradual "Europeanization" will be seen in NATO's central command structure.
Scheffer added that Europe must increase its self-defense capacity without remaining entirely dependent on direct U.S. military support, but that this change will only be possible if the ultimate nuclear guarantee provided by the alliance remains in force. He noted that given the strength of the partnership ties, there is no doubt that this vital assurance will continue unchanged.
