Prof. Dr. İsmail Şahin, President of the International Crisis Research Center, analyzed France's military presence in Southern Cyprus. Şahin assessed that Paris's strategy is a result of the erosion of power it has experienced in its traditional spheres of influence, the Sahel and Levant regions.
Strategic Decline and New Positioning
France's loss of military presence in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, and the decline of its influence in Syria, have pushed Paris to seek a new strategic area. Prof. Dr. Şahin stated that to balance these losses, France has begun to envision the Eastern Mediterranean as a second line of defense.
Three Main Functions of Southern Cyprus
According to Şahin, France is strengthening its military presence on the Island along three main axes:
- Maintaining rapid intervention capacity in the fragile security environment of Syria and Lebanon.
- Ensuring the security of hydrocarbon resources in the Eastern Mediterranean and creating a counterbalance to Turkey's policies.
- Using Southern Cyprus as a forward logistics and intelligence hub to compensate for its declining influence in Africa.
The Turkey Factor and the Energy Equation
Hydrocarbon resources in the Eastern Mediterranean are of vital importance to France. However, Şahin argued that the main cause of the deadlock in the region's energy equation is the attempt to isolate Turkey. He suggested that Turkey's 'win-win' focused model has surpassed France's centralized approach.
A Non-NATO Ground and EU-Focused Policy
The Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) signed by France with the Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus is cited as a concrete example of Paris conducting its presence there through the European Union defense architecture rather than NATO. The agreement is based on the mutual assistance clause of the EU Treaty.
Call for Inclusivity for Regional Stability
Prof. Dr. İsmail Şahin warned that an Eastern Mediterranean security architecture that excludes Turkey would not be sustainable. He noted that the relations France is developing with Greece and the Greek Cypriot Administration carry the risk of turning into an axis aimed at balancing Turkey. Şahin emphasized that for regional stability to be achieved, inclusive and multilateral mechanisms that include Turkey must be developed.
According to the analysis, the competition in the Eastern Mediterranean is turning into a multi-layered power struggle shaped between France's quest for European leadership and Turkey's central position within NATO.
