Armenia has become the focal point of the influence struggle between Russia and the West ahead of the parliamentary elections scheduled for Sunday. The vote will determine whether Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan can remain in power for a third consecutive term and whether the country will strengthen its ties with Moscow or continue its rapprochement with the West.
The election is seen as one of the most critical votes since the country gained independence in 1991. While the opposition tries to stop Pashinyan's Civil Contract Party, the Russia-aligned Strong Armenia Party has emerged as one of the most visible opposition forces on the ground.
Karapetyan under surveillance, opposition campaigns around him
Billionaire Russian-Armenian businessman Samvel Karapetyan manages his political line from his home on a secure hill outside Yerevan. Having amassed wealth in Russia's energy sector, Karapetyan has been under house arrest since January.
Karapetyan and the Strong Armenia Party, which he leads, have stood out as the most visible structure among fragmented opposition blocs. The party's election goal is to prevent Pashinyan from securing a majority for a third consecutive term.
Karapetyan faces accusations of plotting a coup. He claims that allegations of money laundering, tax evasion, and attempting to seize power are politically motivated.
Pashinyan's Western outreach heightens tensions with Moscow
Since 2018, Pashinyan has steered the country closer to the West. Last year, he passed a law initiating the process of joining the European Union. After Azerbaijan regained control over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023, he continued seeking a permanent peace agreement with Baku.
During this process, Pashinyan highlighted the mediation role of U.S. President Donald Trump several times. The West openly supported this shift. European officials attended the first-ever EU-Armenia summit held in Yerevan in May. Weeks later, Trump expressed "full and open support" for Pashinyan.
On June 4, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a 50 million euro economic aid package to Yerevan in response to Moscow's trade restrictions on Armenia. This move stood out as one of Brussels' clearest political and economic messages to Yerevan before the elections.
Moscow increases pressure through trade and energy
Russia is intensifying its pressure on Armenia through trade restrictions and energy dependence. In 2025, Armenia sourced 82% of its natural gas from Moscow at about a quarter of European prices. In April, Vladimir Putin told Pashinyan at the Kremlin that this price difference was "very large."
A month later, Putin called on Pashinyan to hold a referendum between the European Union and the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union. Moscow argues that Armenia cannot pursue two directions simultaneously. Civil Contract, however, currently claims this is possible.
Labor and Social Affairs Minister Arsen Torosyan stated that Armenia will maintain its relations with the European Union and membership in the Eurasian Economic Union as long as this balance continues. Torosyan added that the people will decide which direction to choose when the time comes.
Declining support and a harsh campaign spark controversy
Pashinyan's domestic support has declined during his second term. Approval ratings dropped from 54% in 2021 to around 30% today. Much of the criticism centers on claims that the country weakened in managing the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis and the peace process.
Pashinyan is also accused by both rivals and international human rights groups of democratic backsliding and increasingly harsh authoritarian methods. Reports indicate that dozens of opposition members were detained before the election.
Pashinyan's harsh remarks during the campaign also drew attention. His physical confrontation with a protester and asking a displaced Karabakh resident "Why didn't you die?" later forced him to issue an explanation.
His former ally and leader of Bright Armenia, Edmon Marukyan, said Pashinyan has turned into a new Lukashenko. Torosyan rejected these criticisms, arguing that the country is freer, more sovereign, and more democratic than ever.
Disinformation and foreign interference claims rise with the election
It has been alleged that groups close to the Kremlin have increased disinformation activities during the election process. Narratives accusing Pashinyan of crime, corruption, and even having an incurable disease spread through social media and fake news sites.
Another Reuters report stated that Moscow plans to transport thousands of Russian-Armenians to the country by bus for the election. This plan has further fueled debates about Russia's interference in Armenia's elections.
Hybrid warfare expert Andrei Curararu from Watchdog.MD noted that patterns similar to pressure tactics used in Moldova's elections have been observed in Armenia. These methods include trade embargoes, pressure campaigns, political financing, vote buying, civil society cover, and disinformation.
Curararu expressed hope that just as Moldova resisted this pressure, Armenia could also show similar resilience. The election outcome is expected not only to determine whether the government changes but also to define Armenia's foreign policy axis.
