Germany approved around €800 million ($913 million) in arms export licenses to Israel in the first five months of 2026. This figure exceeds the total of the previous 20 months. The Berlin government confirmed that almost all the approvals were issued in April and May.
According to the German Foreign Ministry's response to a parliamentary question from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, more than 60% of the licenses' value was allocated to an unnamed 'major maritime project'.
Submarine project in focus
Analysts indicate that the project is most likely a submarine built by German manufacturer TKMS. The nuclear-capable Dolphin II-class INS Drakon submarine made its maiden voyage at the Kiel shipyard last year. According to reports in German media, the submarine was officially delivered to the Israeli Navy last week.
Various reports suggest the submarine may have a vertical launch system (VLS), allowing it to launch nuclear-tipped cruise missiles or ballistic missiles. This feature could make Israel the second navy after South Korea to have VLS on a modern air-independent propulsion (AIP) conventional submarine. Strategically, such submarines can provide a country with a sea-based second-strike capability, enabling it to retaliate after a nuclear attack.
In May, TKMS signed a memorandum of understanding with Israel's largest private defense contractor, Elbit Systems, for future cooperation.
Germany's shifting stance
Berlin's arms export policy toward Israel has been fluctuating. In early August, Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced that Germany would no longer issue licenses for military equipment that Israel could use in the Gaza Strip. However, this partial suspension was short-lived: in November, the government lifted restrictions and returned to reviewing applications on a case-by-case basis. Even during the suspension, previously approved shipments continued; for example, in September, a $794,000 arms shipment from Germany arrived at Ben-Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv.
Max Mutschler, a senior researcher at the Bonn International Center for Conflict Studies, told Al Jazeera, 'Unfortunately, the federal government's failure to state this clearly is also a typical example of the lack of transparency surrounding arms exports.' Mutschler said some within the government found 'the export of certain weapons to Israel problematic in light of numerous and credible reports of Israeli war crimes during the military operation in Gaza,' but this was 'not enough to bring about a generally restrictive arms export policy toward Israel.'
Economic calculations
Germany is one of the world's largest arms exporters. According to the Arms Export Report published by the Ministry of Economic Affairs in mid-July, licenses were issued for €13.87 billion ($15.8 billion) worth of arms exports in the first six months of 2026. This is more than four times the figure for the same period in 2025. Ukraine remains the main recipient of German arms exports.
Mutschler said, 'Arms exports have been seen by most federal governments primarily from an economic perspective and welcomed as a means of strengthening the defense industry,' adding, 'The fact that these arms shipments could also be used to commit war crimes appears to play a significantly smaller role in the decision-making process.'
Pieter D. Wezeman, a senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, told Al Jazeera that demand for arms in Europe has risen dramatically in recent years, Germany is now Europe's largest military spender, and the arms industry has become a fundamental component of the European military-industrial base.
Ruth Rohde from the British research group Shadow World Investigations said, 'Israel has used German ships to fire on Gaza, blockade Gaza and starve it, and it uses submarines to deploy nuclear weapons.' Rohde stated, 'While Israel wages brutal wars against its neighbors and commits genocide in Gaza, this submarine export will provide Israel with yet another tool in its arsenal of mass destruction.'
