Goldman Sachs has evaluated that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz may not fully return to pre-war levels. The bank forecasts that in the long term, the flow could stabilize at around 70% of previous volumes.
According to the institution, Gulf countries increasingly using alternative export routes is shaping this outlook. This shift indicates that traditional oil transportation routes are no longer the sole determining factor.
Recovery process may continue until next month
Analysts suggest that the recovery in current oil flows could continue until the end of next month. Crude oil production in the region is expected to approach pre-war levels by October.
Before the war, approximately 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products were transported daily through the Strait of Hormuz. Today, about 1.3 million barrels are shipped daily through the strait, with an additional flow of around 1.6 million barrels daily via the Gulf of Oman route.
Share of alternative routes has increased
Data shows that approximately 7.5 million barrels of oil are transported daily through alternative export points such as Yanbu, Fujairah, and Ceyhan. This demonstrates that shipments in the region are not dependent on a single transit route.
Goldman Sachs also noted that maritime transport capacity is not seen as a limiting factor for the recovery of oil flows. However, some shipowners continue to exercise caution about passing through the Strait of Hormuz due to security concerns.
The assessment indicates that while the Strait of Hormuz remains crucial to global energy flows, the shipment patterns in the region are being reshaped alongside alternative routes. The pace of normalization in oil flows will be closely monitored in the coming weeks based on regional production and transportation preferences.
