Turkey’s reliance on imported fossil fuels for two-thirds of its energy needs is turning the tension stemming from the Strait of Hormuz into a direct economic risk. A new analysis has revealed that the rising oil and natural gas prices in the wake of the war could impose an additional burden of more than $14 billion on Turkey’s energy import bill by the end of the year.
According to the study published on Friday by Ember, a UK-based clean energy and data-focused think tank, if fossil fuel prices remain at their 1 May 2026 levels, Turkey’s energy import bill will rise by roughly 30 percent by year-end compared to 2025. In this scenario, the total additional cost was calculated to reach $14 billion.
The report stated that roughly $8 billion of the additional bill would stem from oil imports, while more than $6 billion would come from natural gas imports. It also recalled that Turkey met 67 percent of its energy demand with imported fossil fuels in 2024, with external dependency standing at 95 percent for natural gas, 83 percent for crude oil and 60 percent for coal.
Strait of Hormuz closed, prices surged
Following the war that began on 28 February 2026 between the US-Israel and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz was closed to ship transits. The disruption at the strait, through which roughly 20 percent of global oil supply and liquefied natural gas trade passes, heightened supply security concerns in world energy markets.
From the date the war started until 1 May 2026, Brent crude rose by 50 percent, European natural gas prices increased by 45 percent, while coal prices showed a limited rise of 3 percent. These price changes were rapidly reflected in Turkey’s import bill.
In March, April and May, when the first effects of the war were felt, Turkey’s net energy imports rose by roughly $3 billion compared to the same period last year, marking a 26 percent increase.
Main oil burden falls on road transport
According to the analysis, the largest additional cost the Hormuz crisis will bring to Turkey will come from oil imports. While external dependency on crude oil stands at 83 percent, Russia ranks first in Turkey’s oil imports with a 46 percent share.
The report noted that Turkey paid $16.1 billion for crude oil imports and roughly $20 billion for petroleum products such as diesel in 2025. According to Ember, an average increase of $35 per barrel in oil prices will bring an additional cost of $7.7 billion to Turkey in 2026. Of this, $5.2 billion will stem from road transport.
The report stressed that road transport also held the largest share in the 2025 net energy import bill. Road transport accounted for nearly one-third of the total with an import bill of $15 billion.
Natural gas bill is also growing
Natural gas, which holds a 26 percent share in Turkey’s total energy supply, is 94.7 percent imported. In 2025, Russia ranked first in natural gas imports with a 36 percent share. According to the report, although Turkey’s dependency on countries directly affected by the Hormuz crisis is limited in its natural gas supply, global price increases are driving up costs.
It was also noted that due to the oil-indexed structure of natural gas contracts, part of the impact is reflected in the bill with a delay of roughly nine months. If natural gas prices maintain their 1 May 2026 level, Turkey’s natural gas import bill will rise by $6.4 billion by year-end. Of this additional burden, $2.3 billion will come from households, $1.6 billion from electricity generation and $1.5 billion from industry.
Coal increase remained limited
The impact of the Hormuz crisis on coal imports was measured as more limited compared to oil and natural gas. More than 60 percent of coal, which makes up 26 percent of Turkey’s primary energy supply, is imported.
It was reported that Turkey imported $27 billion worth of hard coal in the 2021-2025 period, with the amount paid for imported coal used solely for electricity generation reaching $17 billion. Russia was recorded as holding the top spot in coal imports for electricity generation with an 85 percent share.
Although coal prices rose by more than 30 percent in March after the crisis, they approached pre-war levels in April as supply was not directly affected by the war. Ember calculated that the price increase remaining at 3 percent as of 1 May would bring an additional cost of $95 million to total coal imports in 2026.
Latest picture of Turkey’s energy imports
It was recalled that Turkey meets two-thirds of its energy through imports and paid $47 billion for net energy imports in 2025 alone. Of this bill, 47 percent consisted of oil, 43 percent of natural gas and 10 percent of coal imports.
According to the report, Turkey paid an average of $42 billion annually for net energy imports in the 2015-2024 period. This amount corresponded to an average of 4.5 percent of the country’s gross domestic product over the same period.
Ember’s analysis also stressed that the pressure of energy imports on national income remained high compared to similar countries. In the 2015-2024 period, Turkey ranked second among energy-importing G20 countries, after South Korea, with net energy imports at 4.5 percent of national income.
That ratio was stated to be 5.1 percent in South Korea. According to the analysis, high external dependency combined with global price shocks can rapidly inflate Turkey’s energy bill.
2022 record showed the scale of the risk
The report stated that the most striking example of this was seen in 2022. In that year, when the Russia-Ukraine war drove up energy prices, Turkey’s net energy imports exceeded $80 billion, reaching a historic peak.
In the same year, the share of net energy imports in national income climbed to 8.6 percent. This ratio was recorded as nearly double the 10-year average.
Turkey posting its third-highest current account deficit in history at $47 billion in 2022 was also presented as another data point showing the risk that external energy dependency poses to the economy. While the average net energy import bill over the last five years stands at $54.2 billion, excluding 2022 it drops to $47.8 billion.
Electrification and renewables as the solution
The report stated that the path to permanently reducing the energy import bill lies in accelerating electrification in final consumption areas such as transport and buildings. Although the share of renewables in electricity generation rose from 33 percent in 2015 to 43 percent in 2025, electricity generation’s share within the energy import bill remained at 16 percent.
It was stressed that electric vehicles carry significant potential in this picture. While electric vehicles made up 17 percent of new cars sold in Turkey in 2025, the total number of electric vehicles exceeded 420,000 as of April 2026. The Energy Market Regulatory Authority projects this number will surpass 5 million by 2035.
Bahadır Sercan Gümüş, who prepared the report, said that fossil fuel crises increase interest in clean energy worldwide and that a similar shift is possible for Turkey. Gümüş recalled that Turkey now generates one-fifth of its electricity from wind and solar, and stated that the fastest way to avoid the swelling energy import bill seen in every crisis period is to increase the share of renewable energy.
Gümüş also stated that hosting COP31 offers Turkey an opportunity to accelerate its clean energy transformation and prepare a plan for a gradual phase-out from fossil fuels. It was noted that this process would also be important for Turkey to demonstrate its commitment to the clean energy transition on the international stage.
