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Iran and US agree on one-week military truce mediated by Qatar
As a result of indirect negotiations held in Doha under the mediation of Qatar and Pakistan, Iran and the US reached an agreement on a one-week temporary military truce. While the agreement coincides with the parties' internal calendars, experts remain cautious about a permanent solution.
Indirect negotiations between Iran and the US, held in Doha under the mediation of Qatar and Pakistan, resulted in a one-week temporary military truce agreement. According to Al Jazeera Center for Studies researcher Lika Mekki, the reached agreement serves as a concrete roadmap for the next phase.
The short-term calm coincides with the internal agendas of the two countries: while the US celebrates the 250th anniversary of its independence, Iran holds mourning ceremonies for its deceased religious leader Ali Khamenei. However, the question remains whether this temporary détente is merely a tool to keep tensions under control or a harbinger of a new escalation.
According to Mekki, US special envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff conveyed critical messages to the Iranian side through Qatari mediators. These messages emphasized that the gains Tehran would obtain from the memorandum, such as nuclear warhead and oil sales, would far exceed the benefits it would derive from the Strait of Hormuz. Washington also warned that any violation in Hormuz could completely nullify the agreement.
Touching on the details of the financial arrangement, Mekki said the agreement provides for the release of $3 billion instead of $6 billion to Iran. The amount will be used for purchases and payments through restricted bank accounts, and no cash delivery will be made. This formula is said to be acceptable to Iran and not to make Tehran solely dependent on the American market.
At the regional level, Gulf countries have begun working on an initiative regarding the Strait of Hormuz after a 60-day period. It is emphasized that Iran, thanks to the memorandum, has gained the authority to consult with regional countries but retains the final decision. According to Mekki, the files of Hormuz and Lebanon, where Israeli violations continue, will not affect the continuation of negotiations.
Qatari Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari also announced that Witkoff and Kushner were in Doha and were discussing with mediators the implementation of the US-Iran memorandum.
On the other hand, Iran expert Mohammed Saleh Sadqian points to legal obstacles and different positions. He states that the US administration faces congressional restrictions that ban financial transactions and sales with Iran. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharib Abadi also noted that the 60-day period has not yet started, and that the appropriate environment is being awaited. While US media writes that President Donald Trump is open to extending the period to 90 or 200 days, Iranian officials display a cautious and guarded stance.
Middle East policy expert Mahjoub Ez-Zewiri argues that the parties' "strategy of maintaining the status quo" slows down the negotiation process and keeps the risk of returning to conflict alive. According to Ez-Zewiri, this structural hesitation is concretized in the following points:
- US: Shows reluctance to take concrete steps to lift sanctions and to pressure Israel to make progress in southern Lebanon.
- Iran: Displays a clear hesitation in making decisive decisions about opening the Strait of Hormuz.
Ez-Zewiri added that the lack of trust between the parties has condemned the negotiations to a "turtle's pace" after the 60-day period, and that the strategy of maintaining the status quo could blow up the process at any moment, but this would not necessarily lead to an all-out war.
The US and Iran had electronically signed a memorandum on June 17 aimed at ending the war. This memorandum paved the way for second-phase negotiations to reach a final agreement within 60 days.
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