According to Erhan Akkaş, an associate professor at Ankara Social Sciences University’s Department of Economics, Iran is working to develop an alternative trade link that would reach the Black Sea through Armenia and Georgia and then connect to Europe. Rather than representing a powerful alternative capable of disrupting Turkey’s logistics position in the short term, the effort stands out as an attempt by Iran to diversify its transport options.
Work continues on the North–South Corridor
The North–South Road Corridor is one of the main elements of Iran’s initiative along the Armenian route. The corridor begins at the Iranian border and extends north through Armenia, with plans to connect to the Black Sea via Georgia and expand Iran’s access to different trade routes.
Construction is under way on the 32-kilometer Kajaran–Agarak section in the southern part of the corridor, including two tunnels and 15 bridges. Physical progress on the section exceeded 40 percent as of February 2026, while Armenian authorities expect it to be completed in 2027.
An initiative to build a second bridge over the Aras River between Iran and Armenia also returned to the agenda in August 2026. Bringing this connection into service would be important for strengthening road transport between the two countries.
Railway and capacity constraints remain
Infrastructure problems stand in the way of Iran’s route to the Black Sea becoming an option on the same scale as existing transport networks. The absence of a direct railway connection between Iran and Armenia, together with the heavy reliance on road transport, is among the main factors limiting the route’s capacity and speed.
Some road sections in Armenia need improvements in capacity and physical conditions. Establishing a railway connection and upgrading road infrastructure are considered decisive for giving the route greater freight capacity and enabling faster transport.
Iran seeks to diversify its transport options
The security and continuity of transport networks across Eurasia gained greater importance after the Russia–Ukraine war. Developments around the Strait of Hormuz also showed that trade and energy flows depend on specific transit points, reinforcing Iran’s drive to establish connections extending in different directions.
In this context, Iran’s effort to reach the Black Sea through Armenia is not being assessed solely in terms of competition with Turkey. The initiative is viewed as an effort to create an alternative to existing links and diversify Iran’s trade routes.
The Zangezur Corridor and Iran’s security approach
Regarding TRIPP, which Trump also calls the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, Iran emphasizes Armenia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Tehran also voices concerns that the project should not be used for security purposes against Iran.
The Armenian side argues that TRIPP could create economic opportunities for Iran. This difference in approach shows that Iran assesses new transport links not only in terms of their economic benefits but also from a security perspective.
Comparison with the Development Road
The Development Road Project, planned to connect the Persian Gulf with Europe, will cover an approximately 1,200-kilometer road and railway network extending from the Grand Faw Port through Iraq to the Turkish border. The project is expected to be implemented with an investment of approximately $17 billion.
While the Development Road is built around an integrated road and railway network, Iran’s link to the Black Sea includes maritime transport in the Black Sea as well as road transport through Armenia and Georgia. The Persian Gulf–Black Sea Corridor is designed as a multimodal structure bringing together links in Iran, Armenia, Georgia and Europe, creating one of the main differences between the two initiatives.
Because of these differences, Iran’s Black Sea link is unlikely to compete with the Development Road on the same scale in the short term in terms of cost, speed and freight capacity. At the same time, the route stands out as a strategic option that could expand Iran’s access to different trade directions.
Competition is taking shape among connections
Iran’s effort to reach the Black Sea through Armenia and Georgia is not considered an alternative capable of changing Turkey’s existing logistics position in the short term. Regional transport competition is expected to take shape less around the capacity of individual corridors than around how different connections are linked to one another.
This approach indicates that, for Turkey, the development points less to a direct threat than to the need to diversify logistics capacity and international connections. An integrated logistics network linking railways, ports, border crossings and different international corridors will be crucial for Turkey to preserve its advantage.
