Israeli intelligence commentator Ronen Bergman stated that the recent Israel-Iran tension signifies a "double failure" and "embarrassment" for Israel. According to Bergman, the latest developments have also shaken perceptions of Israel's power capacity.
Bergman suggested that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu aimed to escalate the tension to directly draw the US into the conflict. He believes the Israeli leadership calculated that it could achieve objectives left incomplete in the previous round through this approach.
According to the analyst, the situation on the ground did not unfold as expected. Bergman argued that US President Donald Trump avoided being drawn into war and instead restrained Israel.
Bergman wrote that in the end, Iran emerged as the "party making the final move," while the US became the actor defining the conflict's boundaries. According to this scenario, Washington did not allow the broad-scale scenario Tel Aviv desired.
The commentator noted that the possibility of an agreement between the US and Iran signals a risky period for Israel. He suggested that if such an agreement progresses, Israel could face an undesired outcome.
Bergman said Israel failed in its goals to start a war, draw the US into a wider conflict, and link the Lebanon and Iran fronts. He believes Iran appeared to come out of this round on its own terms.
The Israeli analyst emphasized that events within less than 24 hours revealed the limits of Israel's capacity to unilaterally direct the escalation. He also wrote that the perception of Israel acting in full harmony with the US was damaged.
According to Bergman, one of Israel's most important power elements was the image of its influence over Washington. However, in the last round, this reversed, with the US appearing as the party that halted the process.
At the end of the article, Bergman argued that the main strategic gain for Israel's rivals was the visibility of when Tel Aviv stopped and who was able to stop it. This assessment shows that the recent tension has sparked new debates regarding regional power balances.
