A public opinion poll published 23 days before the elections planned for October 27 in Israel showed opposition parties ahead of the alliance led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The poll projected opposition parties to win a total of 52 seats, compared with 51 seats for the parties in the governing alliance.
Distribution of seats among the parties
Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot, ranked first with 23 seats. Netanyahu’s Likud won 21 seats, while Beyahad, led by Naftali Bennett, was projected to win 12 seats and the Democrats, led by Yair Golan, eight.
Jewish Power, part of the governing alliance, won eight seats. The joint list of Religious Zionism, led by Bezalel Smotrich, and Zehut was projected to win six seats.
The Amha Yisrael Party, led by Ofer Winter, failed to clear the electoral threshold for the first time in weeks. Among the Arab parties, the Joint List increased its projected seats to eight after Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the National Democratic Assembly party, withdrew from the Knesset elections. The United Arab List, Ra’am, remained at five seats.
Coalition arithmetic
Ra’am’s five-seat position prevents the opposition group known as the Change Bloc from reaching the 61-seat majority needed to form a coalition without the party. A 61-seat majority is required to form a government in Israel.
Netanyahu’s Likud-led alliance and the opposition parties will compete in the election. Recent polls show that the gap between the blocs is narrow and that neither side is certain to secure a 61-seat majority on its own.
Netanyahu fined over election propaganda
Israel’s Central Elections Committee concluded that Netanyahu had used soldiers for prohibited election propaganda. The committee ordered Netanyahu to pay expenses totaling 29,000 shekels, approximately $9,000.
The 61st Knesset completed its work on July 17 after a dissolution decision was made to ensure that the elections would be held on the scheduled date. Netanyahu has headed the government since the end of December 2022, and his government is described as the most right-wing government in Israel’s history.
Netanyahu faces corruption charges. The International Criminal Court also issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu over allegations that war crimes were committed in the Gaza Strip.
