The heads of government of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have signed an accord bringing independence debates over the future of the United Kingdom back into focus. The agreement emphasized the three nations’ intention to determine their futures in their own way and on their own timetable.
According to an assessment by Tim Bale, a professor in the Department of Politics at Queen Mary University of London, the initiative aims to demonstrate the three devolved governments’ continued commitment to groups that support independence and to put pressure on the United Kingdom’s new prime minister.
Calls for a new referendum in Scotland
John Swinney, Scotland’s First Minister, described Andy Burnham, the United Kingdom’s new prime minister, as “the United Kingdom’s last prime minister.” The Scottish National Party, led by Swinney, is campaigning for a new independence vote.
However, a decision by the Scottish Parliament alone is not sufficient to hold a referendum in Scotland. Under a 2022 ruling by the United Kingdom Supreme Court, the legislative body authorized to approve a referendum is the United Kingdom Parliament in London, which has 650 seats. Around 57 Scottish members of parliament sit in that chamber.
The latest poll in Scotland found that 44 percent wanted to remain in the United Kingdom, while 56 percent supported leaving. These figures closely match the balance recorded in the 2014 independence referendum.
The loss in gross domestic product following the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union could strengthen the arguments of those opposing independence in the debate over its economic consequences.
Support for independence is lower in Wales
Rhun ap Iorwerth, Wales’ First Minister, said that instead of directly addressing the independence debate, Wales needed to have the powers and resources required by a nation, as well as fair treatment.
Ap Iorwerth also pointed to the powers Scotland has and which Wales is said to deserve at least to a limited extent. A poll conducted in August found that, excluding undecided voters, only one-third of Welsh voters would vote to leave the United Kingdom.
Reunification debate in Northern Ireland
Michelle O’Neill, Northern Ireland’s First Minister, argued that the region has the right to hold a referendum on reunification with the Republic of Ireland. O’Neill said they would not accept a prime minister who claimed that this right was no longer valid.
The 1998 Belfast Agreement allows a border poll if it is determined that there is majority support for a united Ireland on both sides of the border. The decision to call a referendum, however, belongs not to Northern Ireland’s First Minister but to the United Kingdom secretary of state for Northern Ireland.
The latest poll in the Republic of Ireland found that two-thirds supported reunification, while in Northern Ireland the proportion holding that view stood at just over one-third. This picture largely reflects the sectarian divide between the predominantly Catholic “nationalist” population and the predominantly Protestant “unionist” population, which defines its identity around Britain.
Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin did not call for a referendum after U.S. President Donald Trump expressed support for a united Ireland. In Northern Ireland, the First Minister’s powers were assessed as no greater than those of the deputy first minister, who supports remaining part of the United Kingdom.
London government is not focusing on the constitutional debate
The accord signed by the three devolved government leaders was first intended to signal to pro-independence supporters that their commitment to the cause remained firm. Its second aim was to create political pressure on the United Kingdom’s new prime minister.
However, the government in London is expected to focus on issues considered important to families rather than on new referendums or constitutional debates. The accord could therefore strengthen the pro-independence base, but the United Kingdom government is not expected to change its approach in the short term.
