German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is facing political pressure amid declining public support and criticism within his own party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). The possibility of replacing Merz with another figure is being debated within the CDU, and the process could gather pace after the state elections scheduled for the autumn.
Support for Merz declines
According to a poll published by ARD, the share of Germans satisfied with Merz’s leadership has fallen to 13 percent. This was the lowest level of support measured for a serving German chancellor in the poll’s nearly 30-year history.
Dissatisfaction with Merz was linked to concerns about the state of Germany’s economy and doubts about planned reforms to the pension and healthcare systems. While 46 percent of CDU and coalition partner Christian Social Union (CSU) supporters favored a change in the government leadership, 48 percent opposed it.
AfD gains strength ahead of state elections
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has become the country’s strongest party, with 28 percent support. Merz’s CDU ranked second with approximately 21 percent.
The elections scheduled for September 6 in Saxony-Anhalt and September 20 in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin could have critical consequences for Merz’s chancellorship. Polls show that the AfD could secure an outright majority in Saxony-Anhalt and win the election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
Criticism of Merz grows within the CDU
Changes made by Merz in the cabinet, which were described as having progressed unevenly, have intensified criticism of his declining authority within the CDU. Interviews conducted by Der Spiegel with figures in the CDU leadership and people close to the chancellor showed that confidence in Merz within the party had weakened.
Assessments published by Der Spiegel argued that Merz’s position had deteriorated far more rapidly than that of CDU Chancellor Ludwig Erhard before he was removed from office in 1966. People who spoke to the magazine said that Merz’s authority had eroded within a few days and that expectations were low that he would still be leading the party at the end of the year.
September 21 emerges as a key date
A senior CDU official who was not identified suggested that Merz might be forced to leave office by September 21 at the latest. The official argued that Merz was unable to communicate with the party and said, “This is over.”
The same official said Merz could have to resign or be forced out of office after the elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. CDU leaders, however, are avoiding taking a clear public position on these scenarios.
Wüst emerges as a possible successor
Hendrik Wüst, the minister-president of North Rhine-Westphalia, has emerged as one of the potential candidates to replace Merz. Wüst is expected to run for re-election in the spring, but taking over as chancellor could prove difficult at a time when Germany’s political and economic problems are intensifying.
In remarks on a Funke Media Group podcast, Wüst said that becoming chancellor was not an option for him at present. However, he did not completely rule out the possibility of becoming a candidate for chancellor in the future, saying that one should “never” say never while governing a major state.
Constitutional process for replacing a chancellor
A chancellor can be replaced during the term of office through resignation or a constructive vote of no confidence in the Bundestag. Despite Merz’s low polling figures, neither scenario is currently considered likely.
