The June research prepared by Işık University Emotics Lab examined the effects of developments and possible scenarios triggered by the "absolute invalidation" process within CHP on voter psychology and political behavior. According to a report by Gözde Yel from T24, the dominant emotion among the opposition base was identified as "anger," which carries the potential to be organized into action (mobilization).
The research results revealed that a significant portion of CHP voters are ready to support possible steps led by Özgür Özel, and there is a clear emotional disconnect between Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and the voters.
VOTERS VIEW THE PROCESS AS "GOVERNMENT'S JUDICIAL INTERVENTION" Participants were asked how they interpret the court decision that placed Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu in the CHP chairmanship and the removal of Özgür Özel from his position. The dominant view among opposition voters was that these events represent "government judicial intervention."
The percentages of those sharing this view were as follows: • CHP voters: 69% • DEM Party voters: 57% • İYİ Party voters: 56% Among AKP voters, the picture was more divided. Only 18% of AKP supporters directly described the process as "judicial intervention," 39% supported the view of an "impartial judiciary," and 43% did not express an opinion.
Voters of the Yeniden Refah Party (YRP) took a middle position, with 38% agreeing with the intervention view and 19% considering the judiciary impartial. KILIÇDAROĞLU'S 'FETÖ' ALLEGATIONS NOT FOUND CONVINCING The study also measured how credible Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s "FETÖ" and "corruption" allegations against some CHP politicians were perceived by voters.
The results showed these claims did not resonate strongly with the opposition base. The percentages of those who found the allegations unconvincing were: • CHP voters: 80% • İYİ Party voters: 75% • DEM Party voters: 71% Even among the ruling bloc voters, belief in these allegations was low. 37% of AKP voters and 34% of MHP voters found the claims credible.
The research noted that "these statements had limited political impact." 'KILIÇDAROĞLU EVOKES AS MUCH ANGER AS ERDOĞAN AMONG CHP BASE' One of the most striking findings was the emotional intensity leaders generate among voters.
When examining leaders’ emotional scores (out of 10), a striking picture emerged: • Hope Score (Among CHP Voters): Özgür Özel scored 7.9, while Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu scored only 1.6. In the same voter group, President Erdoğan’s hope score was 1.3. Overall averages showed Özel at 4.5 and Erdoğan at 4.3.
• Anger Score (Among CHP Voters): Anger toward Kılıçdaroğlu was 7.5, while Erdoğan’s anger score was 7.6. The near tie in anger levels was interpreted as a strong emotional rift between CHP voters and Kılıçdaroğlu.
DOMINANT EMOTION IN THE ABSOLUTE INVALIDATION PROCESS: ANGER Responses to the question "Which emotion does the absolute invalidation process make you feel most?" were distributed among voter groups as follows: • CHP voters: 38% Anger • DEM Party voters: 28% Anger • İYİ Party voters: 27% Anger Among AKP and MHP voters, the option "I feel no emotion" was predominant. 25% of AKP voters and 24% of MHP voters expressed indifference toward the process.
Overall, anger was the most common emotion at 20%, followed by "no emotion" at 18%.
GREATEST CONCERNS: DEMOCRACY AND SOCIAL TENSION The research also explored which concerns the process triggered among voters. 77% of CHP voters, 70% of İYİ Party voters, and 72% of DEM Party voters said the process raised fears of "democracy losing its meaning."
Concerns about social tension were high across all voter groups: 45% among CHP voters, 47% among İYİ Party voters, 45% among AKP voters, and 48% among MHP voters. Economic impacts ranked third in all groups.
VOTERS EXPECT ÖZEL TO ADOPT A CALM AND DETERMINED ATTITUDE When asked how Özgür Özel and the CHP leadership should behave during this process, 36% of the general sample preferred a "calm and determined" approach, while 31% emphasized focusing on legal processes. Among CHP voters, 45% supported a "calm and determined" stance, and 38% prioritized legal struggle.
Support for a tougher line and street mobilization was also notable; 33% of CHP voters favored a harder fight, and 31% supported street mobilization. A conciliatory approach was the least supported option at 12%.
ÖZEL'S NEW PARTY COULD SURPASS AKP A key part of the research was the scenario of Özgür Özel founding a new party.
33% of participants said they would directly vote for such a party. Adding the 16% who said they were "neutral," the total potential support for Özel’s possible party reaches 49%. 69% of CHP voters said they would vote for the new party, 52% expressed willingness to volunteer support, and 42% were ready to provide financial contributions.
Limited but meaningful support signals were also seen among DEM Party and İYİ Party voters. Two different election scenarios were tested: • Scenario 1 (Only Led by Özgür Özel): The new party’s vote share is measured at 33%. • Scenario 2 (Özgür Özel - Mansur Yavaş Partnership): With Ankara Metropolitan Mayor Mansur Yavaş also prominent, the party’s vote share rises to 37%, becoming the leading party. In both scenarios, AKP remains around 31-34%, while Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s vote share falls to 5-6%, below the election threshold.
The research noted that Mansur Yavaş’s effect could be within the margin of statistical error, but emphasized that the majority of CHP voters are shifting toward the new formation. (POLITICS SERVICE).
