US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met in Manila on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit. Although the official agenda was the Ukraine war, the meeting took place under the shadow of new reports that Russia played a more active role in Iran's attacks on US military targets in the Middle East.
Reports that Iran targeted CIA facilities emerged in the early days of the war launched by the US and Israel against Iran. The Washington Post reported on March 3, citing two sources, that a CIA station at the US Embassy in Riyadh was struck. CNN, citing US intelligence sources on March 6, suggested that Moscow helped Tehran locate US personnel and aircraft in the Gulf.
Reuters news agency also reported on Wednesday that US intelligence had begun investigating possible Russian involvement after Iran's drone attacks on CIA facilities at the US Embassy in Saudi Arabia. The report noted that the effectiveness and precision of the attacks could indicate possible external support.
Expert: 'Russia's role is a realistic theory'
Nicole Grajewski, an assistant professor at the Sciences Po Center for International Studies in Paris, told Al Jazeera that the theory of Russia's involvement in Iran's targeting process was 'realistic.' Grajewski said, 'Most of the attacks Iran carried out were far more advanced than what they had done before. That's why such support was suspected.'
Grajewski stressed that Iran, unlike Russia, lacks advanced space-based reconnaissance capabilities, saying, 'Iran does not have enough military satellites for basic needs... It seems likely they have made some kind of deal with the Russians.' However, she added that Iran also has its own human intelligence networks in the region, which are often overlooked.
Deepening ties between Moscow and Tehran
Amid wars and sanctions, military ties between Moscow and Tehran are deepening. Grajewski disagreed with views that the relationship is a 'marriage of convenience' against the West rather than an alliance, saying, 'Both see themselves as actors facing similar threats on the global stage, and their cooperation has intensified since the Ukraine war, especially recently.'
After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Iran provided Moscow with critical weapons, particularly Shahed drones and Fateh-110 ballistic missiles, bringing the two sides closer militarily. The 20-year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement signed last year also pledged to increase defense cooperation. However, according to the Moscow Times, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko said the agreement 'does not mean a military alliance or mutual military assistance with Iran.'
Russia also allegedly provided the Kometa-M anti-jamming navigation system to improve the accuracy of Iran's Shahed-136 drones. In March, the Russian system was reportedly found in the wreckage of Iran's failed attack on a British Royal Air Force base in Cyprus. Russia, however, dismissed the Wall Street Journal's report as 'fake news.'
US-Iran attacks escalate
Tit-for-tat attacks between the US and Iran have intensified in recent days. As US airstrikes on Iran entered their 12th night, at least two people were killed in an attack on the Shalamcheh border crossing with Iraq on Thursday morning. Iran has also launched numerous retaliatory strikes on Gulf countries and Jordan in recent days.
Grajewski said that ultimately, Iran's own tactics are more decisive for the course of the war than Russian intelligence support. 'Russian involvement is not a fundamental turning point for Iran. Iran already had these capabilities; it had developed a comprehensive drone force and missile force,' Grajewski said, adding, 'What this support did was give Iran an advantage and enhance it.'
