Senate control rests on eight states two days before U.S. midterms

Republicans must win at least five of eight closely contested races to retain their Senate majority in the November 3 congressional midterms. While Democrats appear favored in the House, federal poll watchers and tensions within Republican ranks are also in focus.

With two days remaining before the congressional midterms, seen as the first major test of U.S. President Donald Trump's second term, attention has turned to the critical Senate races. On Tuesday, November 3, voters will cast ballots for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the Senate's 100 seats. The first polls will close in the early hours of Wednesday, November 4, Türkiye time. The results will determine how much support Trump receives from Congress during the final two years of his term at the White House.

Senate races are tight, while Democrats are favored in the House

The picture is more uncertain in the Senate. Real Clear Politics projects Democrats to win 47 seats and Republicans 45, with seven of the eight closely contested races leaning Republican and one leaning Democratic. If Republicans win at least five of those eight states, they will reach 50 seats. In a 50-50 tie, Vice President JD Vance, in his capacity as president of the Senate, will cast the deciding vote. Republicans currently hold 53 seats in the Senate.

The independent election analysis organization Cook Political Report shifted its assessments of 12 House races in favor of Democrats on October 30. After moving 18 and 19 races in the same direction earlier in October, the organization projects that Democrats will win a majority with between 227 and 240 seats.

Real Clear Politics, which compiles polling averages, also gives Democrats a lead of 227 seats to Republicans' 182 in the House, with 26 seats in close contests. A majority requires 218 seats. Republicans currently hold 218 seats in the House, compared with 214 for Democrats.

Washington'daki ABD Kongre binası

1,000 federal poll watchers at polling stations

The Justice Department is preparing to conduct the most extensive polling-place monitoring operation in its history, with about 1,000 personnel on Election Day. In a filing with a federal court in a lawsuit brought by the NAACP, which advocates for the rights of Black Americans, the department said that FBI and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) employees would not be among the observers. The observers, who will not carry weapons or wear federal clothing, will consist mainly of personnel from the Federal Bureau of Prisons, the DEA and the ATF. Democrats and voting rights organizations have reiterated their warning that the operation could intimidate voters.

Bannon warns of “civil war”

Concerns about the post-election period are also rising within Republican ranks. In an interview with the Financial Times, Steve Bannon, Trump's former White House chief strategist, claimed that Republicans would be driven into a “civil war” after the votes were counted and that “huge” legislative battles would take place before the new Congress was sworn in. Bannon had previously said that the White House would be “served subpoenas every day” if Democrats took control of the House.

Milyarder Elon Musk

Spending is also reaching record levels in the election race. According to CNN, billionaire Elon Musk donated more than $445 million to political committees supporting Republicans during the 2026 election cycle, making him the largest individual donor in modern U.S. history.

Senate control rests on eight states two days before U.S. midterms