The Swiss Federal Council warned that leaving the Schengen and Dublin agreements could cost the country’s economy billions of francs and weaken domestic security.
According to a report published on Friday, Switzerland’s gross domestic product could be up to 3.9% lower in 2035 in a scenario without the agreements. The annual per capita income loss is estimated to reach 1,300 Swiss francs, or more than $1,500.
Border controls and impact on the workforce
If Switzerland leaves the agreements, its borders with neighboring countries would become the external borders of the Schengen area, requiring border controls to be significantly expanded.
The number of cross-border workers commuting between Switzerland and neighboring countries could fall by up to 60%. This decline could particularly affect the food service and care sectors, while commuters could lose a total of 422,000 hours on each working day because of border traffic.
Tourism and asylum costs
The report projects annual losses in the tourism sector of between 320 million and 810 million Swiss francs. Additional asylum-related costs could reach 824 million francs.
Leaving the agreements could also increase the possibility of up to 170,000 people moving to Switzerland.
Warning over security cooperation
The Federal Council said that leaving the agreements would mean losing access to important security databases and cooperation mechanisms in Europe. Swiss authorities recorded approximately 40,000 matches linked to Switzerland in the Schengen Information System in 2025.
The report argued that even additional spending would not fully compensate for the loss of security capacity provided by the agreements. The Federal Council said that the additional costs required to reintroduce border controls, operate national databases and maintain domestic security could not be covered by the savings achieved after the agreements ended.
