The Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) announced in its June forecast report that the country's economy is expected to grow by 0.9% this year. While maintaining the growth forecast for 2026 at 1% announced in March, the agency lowered the 2027 forecast from 1.7% to 1.6%.
The report highlighted the sharp rise in crude oil prices due to the crisis in the Middle East. This development has increased global inflation rates and paved the way for tighter monetary policies among Switzerland's trading partners, especially in Europe.
Inflation Expectations Raised
SECO raised its inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to 0.6%, up from 0.4% and 0.5% respectively in March, due to the increase in oil prices. It was noted that rising costs are suppressing private consumption expenditures, and the slowdown in global demand is negatively affecting Switzerland's exports and investment activities.
The agency expects the unemployment rate in Switzerland to average 3.1% this year, with a slight decrease to around 3% in 2027.
Geopolitical Risks Weigh on Growth
SECO stated that uncertainties regarding the course of the crisis in the Middle East continue to pose risks to the global economy. It warned that any lasting threat to energy infrastructure or shipping routes could prolong inflationary pressures.
The assessment noted that in such a scenario, the Swiss economy could face lower growth and higher inflation. It also mentioned that if these risks materialize, there could be renewed appreciation pressure on the Swiss franc.
SECO experts pointed out that uncertainties in international trade policies persist, and current forecasts assume that U.S. import tariffs will remain at their current levels. The statement also noted that new customs duties could be introduced after the expiration of current regulations in the U.S.
The report published within this framework revealed that the Swiss economy is under pressure not only from domestic demand but also from energy prices, trade policies, and global geopolitical risks.
