A 76 percent increase in rainfall from last year has strengthened expectations that Türkiye’s wheat production will reach a record 24.5 million tons. Eren Günhan Ulusoy, president of IAOM’s Eurasia Region, said they did not expect supply or procurement problems in the domestic market in the short or medium term because of the efficient local harvest and strong stocks.
Ulusoy assessed the effects of the military tensions centered on the Black Sea, the severe drought in Europe and Türkiye’s agricultural and trade strategies on global grain markets.
Developments in the Black Sea affect grain markets
Ulusoy said the war between Ukraine and Russia had reached a stage in which port infrastructure and cargo ships were being directly targeted, adding that the current situation was more sensitive than the first crisis period in 2022.
Ulusoy recalled that Ukrainian ports were closed during the initial phase of 2022 while Russian ports remained open. He said that today, the logistics and port infrastructure of both countries, including the Izmail and Black Sea routes, had become targets of attacks by both sides.
Ulusoy said disruptions to the export capacity of Russia and Ukraine, which together provide approximately 30 percent of the world’s wheat supply, directly affect global markets. He added that Russia’s export forecast had been lowered to 43–46 million tons, while Ukraine’s forecast had been reduced to 13.5 million tons.
Drought in Europe reduces yields
Ulusoy said the severe drought intensifying across Europe was causing yield losses, adding that Türkiye’s production capacity in the flour and baked-goods sector, along with its logistical capabilities, gave the country an advantage in regional markets.
Ulusoy said that as Russia and Ukraine’s share of global wheat trade declines, countries such as the United States, Canada and Kazakhstan are gaining greater prominence. He noted that Türkiye is one of the leading actors capable of filling the gap in Europe’s processed grain products market and strengthening its position in new markets.
IAOM conference to be held in Tashkent
Türkiye leads the Eurasia Region of the US-based IAOM, which has a 130-year history. The Eurasia region, comprising 32 countries, represents 30 percent of global wheat production and 55 percent of global flour exports, with a population of more than 2 billion and an economic output of $7.1 trillion.
The IAOM Eurasia Conference and Exhibition will be held in Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan, for the first time on September 28–29. More than 1,000 industry professionals from Russia, Ukraine, Central and Eastern Europe, the Baltic countries, Kazakhstan, the Central Asian republics, the United States, the Middle East and Africa are expected to attend.
The conference will bring together producers of grain, flour, pasta, bulgur and animal feed, as well as suppliers of milling machinery, laboratory equipment, logistics, storage and packaging.
Ulusoy said the decision had been made to hold the congress in Uzbekistan for the first time this year. He said Uzbekistan was strategically important because of its strong milling sector and its flour exports to neighboring countries using wheat sourced from Kazakhstan. Ulusoy added that the conference had become more important at a time when wheat routes were changing because of the problems in the Black Sea.
