Five years ago, the West nearly drove Turkey into a full-blown diplomatic crisis with 10 ambassadors calling for the release of businessman Osman Kavala, whom they viewed as a political prisoner. At the time, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ordered the expulsion of the ambassadors, but both sides backed down within two days.
However, since then, especially after Russia's invasion of Ukraine left Europe feeling vulnerable, the West has largely withdrawn its public criticism of Turkey's rights and freedoms record. Instead, it has focused on strengthening security ties with a regional military power and major defense industry partner.
This diplomatic shift will be evident at the NATO summit in Ankara on July 7-8. The leaders of 32 member states are not expected to criticize the unprecedented judicial pressure on the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) — including the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Erdogan's main rival and presidential candidate.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Ankara David Satterfield said, "It is still important for the West to continue commenting on the erosion of democratic institutions in Turkey, because the trajectory is not irreversibly set; Turkey is not a hopeless case." Satterfield rejected the idea that his advocacy on human rights has damaged U.S.-Turkey relations.
Erdogan's office did not respond to a request for comment on such views. The ruling AK Party states that the courts are independent and rejects democratic criticism.
Before the summit, many journalists from independent media outlets were not allowed to cover the event, while authorities detained more than 200 people on security grounds. A NATO spokesperson said accreditation relied on the host country's guidance.
U.S. President Donald Trump, noted for his personal friendship with Erdogan that began in his first term, is expected to hold a bilateral meeting with him. The summit is expected to announce tens of billions of dollars in defense industry deals.
Warsaw-based Center for Eastern Studies expert Karol Wasilewski said Western allies are signaling that they "have to some extent abandoned values and prefer a transactional relationship, knowing that Turkey is indispensable for Europe's defense." He added that Ankara knows any Western criticism of pressure on the opposition will remain silent and will not translate into action.
