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- October 13, 202617°
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- October 13, 202617°
Climate change is intensifying extreme weather and straining European sectors
Associate Professor İzzet Arı of Ankara Social Sciences University assessed how the accumulation of greenhouse gases is intensifying extreme weather events and the measures that need to be taken.
Associate Professor İzzet Arı of Ankara Social Sciences University assessed the changes caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to the global climate system and the effects of extreme weather events on agriculture, water resources and energy infrastructure.
Data cited by Arı show that atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations reached 425.6 parts per million in 2025, an increase of 53 percent compared with the preindustrial period. This rise is disrupting Earth’s energy balance, while creating conditions for a warming atmosphere to intensify extreme weather events.
A warming atmosphere increases the risks of heavy rainfall and drought
The atmosphere’s moisture-holding capacity increases by approximately 7 percent for every 1-degree rise in global surface temperatures. This physical relationship is accelerating the global water cycle, increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and flooding in humid regions while raising evaporation demand over land and deepening drought trends.
Europe has recorded a temperature increase of approximately 0.56 degrees per decade since the mid-1990s. This rate is about twice the global average of 0.27 degrees.
Rapid warming in Europe is being driven by persistent heat domes caused by deviations in the jet streams, increased solar radiation reaching the surface as industrial emissions decline, and albedo loss linked to the retreat of snow cover.
In Western Europe, the average temperature reached 21.62 degrees in June and July 2026. The figure was 2.79 degrees above the long-term average, making it the hottest period on record in the region. Extreme heat caused flow rates in the Rhine and Danube river basins to fall to historic lows and increased water scarcity.
Warming oceans are affecting the climate balance
The oceans absorb more than 90 percent of the excess energy trapped by greenhouse gases. The heat content of the upper 2,000-meter layer of the oceans rose by 23 zettajoules in 2025 from the previous year, reaching a record level. This increase is equivalent to approximately 215 times annual global electricity consumption.
Ocean warming occurred despite the cooling La Niña conditions in the Pacific. Marine heatwaves were observed across 87 percent of the ocean surface. Changes in the normal functioning of atmosphere-ocean interactions such as La Niña and El Niño can further intensify the effects of climate change.
Findings published in 2026 revealed the sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to rapid warming. The assessment found that the AMOC could remain stable in slow-warming scenarios even if temperatures rose by 5 degrees, whereas in rapid-warming scenarios approaching 0.3 degrees per decade, as seen today, it could enter a collapse process at the 2-degree threshold.
A weakening or collapse of the AMOC is considered a tipping point that could cause temperatures to fall sharply across Europe and alter precipitation patterns. Rising carbon dioxide concentrations and global average sea-surface temperatures are increasing the possibility that ocean currents could lose their contribution to Europe’s temperature balance.
Agriculture and energy infrastructure under pressure
Extreme weather events cause an average annual 12 percent decline in the productivity of global agricultural crops. The early melting of snow cover reduces irrigation water reserves during the summer months. Pressure over water allocation is also increasing tensions between agriculture and other sectors.
Climate change is placing enough pressure on the water and agriculture sectors to trigger social problems while also reducing climate resilience. The energy sector is directly affected by drought, hot weather and declining wind speeds.
Fourteen percent of nuclear power plants use river water directly for cooling. During the extreme drought in 2026, low water levels in the Danube caused 40 percent of Southeastern Europe’s nuclear capacity to be taken offline.
In France, a ban on discharging hot water into rivers under environmental protection rules caused interruptions in nuclear power generation. Increased biomass in warming coastal waters also created operational problems at some plants; at the Gravelines Nuclear Power Plant, reactors were shut down urgently after swarms of jellyfish clogged the filters.
Wind speeds can decline by 30 to 50 percent during heatwaves. In the United Kingdom, wind power generation fell to 15 percent in June 2026. Although solar power provides high output during the day, advanced battery storage infrastructure is needed to meet rising cooling demand in the evening.
Warning against the “new normal” approach
Describing the increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events as the “new normal” can create the perception that climate conditions have reached a stable equilibrium. Instead, the current situation should be treated as a dynamic process progressing toward increasingly severe exceptional conditions.
The “shifting baseline syndrome,” defined by Daniel Pauly, along with generational amnesia, can cause societies to normalize ecological degradation. Societies may mentally accept only the average conditions of the past two to eight years as “normal.”
The climate normals updated every 30 years by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration carry the effects of climate change, but can weaken the sense of urgency by creating new baselines. This can strengthen the social belief that extreme heat and ecological losses are inevitable.
Limiting the effects of climate change requires accelerating emissions reductions and implementing flexible infrastructure investments capable of adapting to changing conditions. If these steps are delayed, the effects and economic costs of climate change are expected to become chronic.
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