A study published in July by CESifo, affiliated with the Center for Economic Studies at the University of Munich, examined the political effects of Germany’s energy crisis during 2022–2023.
According to the study, high and unexpected energy costs weakened some voters’ confidence in mainstream parties. Relative support increased for Alternative for Germany (AfD), which promised lower energy costs and opposed energy sanctions against Russia.
Higher electricity bills increased AfD support
Support for the AfD rose among households exposed to large increases in electricity costs, and the shift continued over time. No statistically similar and significant increase was observed in support for other political parties, while support for the Greens declined among voters facing above-average cost increases.
The study defined an “above-average increase” as a rise of more than 31% in monthly electricity advance payments. This does not mean that the average electricity bill for all households increased by 31%; it refers to the threshold researchers used to identify the high-increase group.
In Germany, the average retail electricity price reached €0.45 per kilowatt-hour in 2023. The price rose by 42% after the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine war; although wholesale electricity prices declined in 2023, retail prices recorded an increase of 25–30%.
Political effect persisted despite €95 billion support package
The German government implemented three major support packages during the energy crisis, with a total financial volume of €95 billion. The packages included lump-sum payments, tax cuts and temporary subsidies.
The government also introduced price caps of €0.40 per kilowatt-hour for electricity, €0.12 for natural gas and €0.095 for district heating. These caps applied to 80% of the previous year’s consumption.
The researchers said that although many households were eligible for or received support, they did not feel supported. One possible reason, they suggested, was that the payments were not directly linked to electricity bills, preventing households from connecting the public assistance with their high bills.
Energy costs also affected support for climate policies
According to the study, the temporary and unexpected electricity-cost shock produced lasting political consequences. Support for climate policies declined among voters exposed to high electricity costs.
The study emphasized that support increased for the AfD, a party known for its opposition to climate policies, even though the electricity price shock was not directly caused by a climate policy. It found no evidence that this effect was stronger among low-income households or people who said they had difficulty reducing their energy consumption.
The researchers noted that the results were based on Germany’s distinctive electricity billing system and cautioned that the findings should not be directly generalized to other countries.
Economic crises had previously increased support for the far right in Germany
Severe economic and social crises in Germany’s recent history created conditions conducive to the growth of far-right movements. Hyperinflation and economic instability in the early 1920s weakened confidence in the Weimar Republic.
After 1929, high unemployment and political instability caused by the Great Depression also contributed to the rapid rise of Adolf Hitler’s Nazi Party. Contemporary research likewise indicates that economic and social pressures can increase support for far-right politics.
