Senior intelligence officials in Europe have issued prominent warnings about Russia’s activities targeting NATO countries. European security officials who spoke to The Guardian assess that Moscow could take further steps to test NATO’s response and solidarity within the alliance.
“Within months, not years”
Michal Koudelka, director of the Czech Security Information Service (BIS), said an attempt by Russia to test NATO could take place in the coming months rather than in the distant future.
According to Koudelka, possible scenarios could include a limited incursion into the territory of a NATO country, a false-flag operation, increased drone activity or large-scale operations intended to influence public opinion.
NATO’s Article 5 could be tested
The warnings followed remarks by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in parliament. Tusk said, based on intelligence assessments, that Russia could carry out drone or missile incidents targeting NATO territory in the coming months.
According to Tusk, the aim of such an action could be to test how NATO’s Article 5 would work in practice. The article treats an attack against one member as an attack against the entire alliance.
Intelligence officials point to sabotage activities
Another issue highlighted by European intelligence chiefs is sabotage and hybrid activity linked to Russia. Officials assess that railways, defense-industry facilities and critical infrastructure supporting Ukraine could increasingly become targets.
Security officials from Sweden, Czechia and Latvia share concerns that sabotage activities in Europe could intensify in the coming months.
Latvia offers a more cautious assessment
However, European intelligence services do not all share the same assessment of the possibility that Russia could directly attack NATO.
Normunds Mežviets, head of Latvia’s State Security Service, said there were signs that Russia could be preparing for more determined actions in Europe, but that they had seen no indications of an imminent direct military attack.
Some officials in the Baltic region also warn that exaggerating the threat could create fear in society, serving the objectives of Russia’s influence operations.
Not a warning of full-scale war
The assessments by European officials do not mean that Russia will begin a full-scale war with NATO within a few months. The main scenario under consideration is that Moscow could take a limited action creating uncertainty in order to measure the alliance’s response.
In this context, officials assess that various methods could be used, ranging from drone and missile incidents to sabotage, disinformation operations and limited border incursions.
Europe is monitoring Russia’s next steps
As the war in Ukraine continues, European intelligence services are monitoring Russia’s hybrid activities targeting NATO countries more closely. Recent assessments indicate that European security institutions consider the next few months particularly critical.
