Former Finnish Defense Minister Kaikkonen assessed Finland’s NATO membership, relations with Türkiye, security dynamics along its 1,300-kilometer land border with Russia and developments in the Baltic Sea.
Kaikkonen said Türkiye has strong military capabilities and a significant defense industry. Highlighting Türkiye’s strategic position between Europe, the Black Sea and the Middle East, Kaikkonen described the country as an important ally.
Defense cooperation with Türkiye
Kaikkonen said the Memorandum of Understanding on Defense Industry Cooperation signed between Finland and Türkiye would contribute to the development of relations, adding that the two NATO allies were well positioned to deepen their defense cooperation further.
The Baltic Sea and border security
Kaikkonen said Finland was prepared for different scenarios in the Baltic Sea and that tensions in the region had risen. He noted that Finland’s deterrence capacity had increased after joining NATO and said the country would be defended against a possible military attack by its national defense forces and with NATO support, under pre-planned arrangements.
Kaikkonen also addressed measures taken against the instrumentalization of irregular migration. He said the Border Security Act, adopted by the Finnish Parliament in July 2024 and extended until December 31, 2026, allows Finland to restrict applications for international protection and counter attempts by a foreign state to exert influence over Finland by using people.
Kaikkonen said NATO had launched the Baltic Sentry initiative to increase its military presence and surveillance to protect critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, adding that it demonstrated Finland’s ability to act quickly in the event of a possible incident.
Assessment of Europe’s defense industry
Kaikkonen said Europe’s defense industry production had not reached the required level and that the war in Ukraine had exposed shortcomings in ammunition, air defense, unmanned aerial vehicles, missiles and industrial capacity. He said European allies needed to strengthen their defense capabilities.
Kaikkonen said units in the Leningrad Military District operating toward Finland were expected to be reinforced within the next two to four years as part of Russia’s military reform, depending on the course of the war in Ukraine. Kaikkonen assessed that the number of Russian troops stationed near Finland could increase from approximately 30,000 to around 80,000, but said they did not expect a significant increase in military strength in the border region as long as the war continued.
Kaikkonen said Russia’s future relations with Northern Europe and NATO would depend on its approach to complying with international law and agreements, adding that political dialogue between Europe and Russia would have to begin at some point. He said it was vital for Europe to act in unity throughout this process.
