The agreement signed between the US and Iran eased uncertainty about global energy supply, creating relief in prices. Concerns over shipment risks around the Strait of Hormuz have eased, leading to a rapid decline especially in oil prices.
After reaching $126 per barrel during the crisis, Brent crude fell back to the $77-78 range, marking its lowest level in three months. Markets welcomed the normalization of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical energy transit points.
Expectations for Relief in Energy and Trade Routes
Rising oil and natural gas prices in recent months due to war and shipment risks have increased living costs in many countries. If the strait operates regularly again, a decrease in maritime transportation costs and acceleration in international trade flows are expected.
The agreement is also expected to have a positive impact on Turkey. The decline in energy costs could ease inflationary pressures and contribute to reducing the current account deficit.
Rising Expectations for Energy-Intensive Sectors
Sectors with high energy consumption such as chemicals, steel, fertilizer, glass, and automotive are expected to benefit from this development. Turkey, an important logistics corridor between Europe and Asia, is anticipated to gain advantages from the normalization of transport and trade flows.
The initial market reaction was positive. With falling oil prices and reduced geopolitical risks, risk appetite increased in stock markets. Positive expectations emerged in the stock markets of energy-importing countries, while the BIST 100 index closed the day up 2.73% at 14,814 points.
Activity Observed in Currency Markets
Following the agreement, the dollar index rose to its highest level since May 2025. The US dollar reached levels not seen in a long time as the Fed's hawkish stance strengthened expectations for interest rate hikes.
The euro fell 0.3% to $1.146, and the pound dropped 0.54% to $1.322. This situation indicates that alongside relief in the oil sector, a new pricing period has begun in currency markets as well.
Call for Unconditional Opening of the Strait of Hormuz
International Energy Agency Director Fatih Birol warned that if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened by the end of June, the global economy will enter a red zone. Birol reminded that oil demand will increase with the start of the travel season in July and August.
Birol stated that the solution is the unconditional and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz. He regarded the price decline as a positive development and emphasized that how negotiations conclude after 60 days will be an important issue.
